Updated

Zambia Super League · Matchday 4

Zanaco vs NAPSA Stars

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was NAPSA Stars to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ZanacoDrawNAPSA Stars

Zanaco vs NAPSA Stars: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceZanacoDrawNAPSA Stars
Model31%34%35%
Market———
Published31%34%35%
Edge———

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Zanaco and NAPSA Stars expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.92Zanaco
1.01NAPSA Stars
Total expected goals
1.93
Attack rating (Zanaco / NAPSA Stars)
1.03 / 0.93
Defence rating (Zanaco / NAPSA Stars)
1.52 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Zanaco vs NAPSA Stars score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.9% 13.3% 7.4% 2.5% 0.8% 1 12.1% 14.8% 6.8% 2.3% 0.7% 2 6.2% 6.2% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3% 3 1.9% 1.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Zanaco goals. Columns: NAPSA Stars goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Zanaco vs NAPSA Stars goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 84%
Over 1.5 59%
Over 2.5 30%
Over 3.5 13%
Both teams to score
39%
No goals (0–0)
16%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Zanaco vs NAPSA Stars

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Zanaco31%3.27
Draw34%2.92
NAPSA Stars35%2.84
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.530%3.30
Under 2.570%1.43
Both teams to scoreYes39%2.53
No61%1.65
Double chance1X (Zanaco or draw)65%1.54
12 (either side)66%1.52
X2 (draw or NAPSA Stars)69%1.44
Handicap -1NAPSA Stars win by 2+14%7.17
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Zanaco and NAPSA Stars recent form

Zanaco 2W 1D 3L
NAPSA Stars 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Zanaco at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

NAPSA Stars away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Zanaco at home only, NAPSA Stars away only.

Zanaco vs NAPSA Stars head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Zanaco 2 · draws 1 · NAPSA Stars 7.

ZanacoDrawsNAPSA Stars
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-11Zanaco0-2NAPSA StarsFriendlies Clubs
2026-05-12NAPSA Stars2-0ZanacoZambia Super League
2026-01-15Zanaco0-2NAPSA StarsZambia Super League
2025-03-13NAPSA Stars1-0ZanacoSuper League
2024-11-09Zanaco0-1NAPSA StarsSuper League
2024-02-24Zanaco0-0NAPSA StarsSuper League
2023-09-23NAPSA Stars3-0ZanacoSuper League
2023-04-02Zanaco0-1NAPSA StarsSuper League
2022-11-05NAPSA Stars1-2ZanacoSuper League
2021-05-29NAPSA Stars0-2ZanacoSuper League

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match