Updated

Zambia Super League · Matchday 4

Green Eagles vs Roan United

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Green Eagles to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

18% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Green EaglesDrawRoan United

Green Eagles vs Roan United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGreen EaglesDrawRoan United
Model45%34%20%
Market———
Published45%34%20%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.12 vs 0.65.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Green Eagles and Roan United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.12Green Eagles
0.65Roan United
Total expected goals
1.76
Attack rating (Green Eagles / Roan United)
1.22 / 1.02
Defence rating (Green Eagles / Roan United)
0.89 / 0.87

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Green Eagles vs Roan United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 18.4% 9.9% 3.6% 0.8% 0.1% 1 17.9% 13.6% 4.0% 0.9% 0.2% 2 10.7% 6.9% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 3 4.0% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Green Eagles goals. Columns: Roan United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Green Eagles vs Roan United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 82%
Over 1.5 54%
Over 2.5 26%
Over 3.5 10%
Both teams to score
33%
No goals (0–0)
18%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Green Eagles vs Roan United

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Green Eagles45%2.20
Draw34%2.90
Roan United20%4.98
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.526%3.85
Under 2.574%1.35
Both teams to scoreYes33%3.00
No67%1.50
Double chance1X (Green Eagles or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)66%1.53
X2 (draw or Roan United)55%1.83
Handicap -1Green Eagles win by 2+20%5.05
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Green Eagles and Roan United recent form

Green Eagles 3W 0D 3L
Roan United 1W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Roan United away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Green Eagles at home only, Roan United away only.

Green Eagles vs Roan United head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Green Eagles 2 · draws 2 · Roan United 0.

Green EaglesDrawsRoan United
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2014-10-26Green Eagles2-0Roan UnitedSuper League
2014-06-14Roan United0-3Green EaglesSuper League
2012-07-21Green Eagles0-0Roan UnitedSuper League
2012-05-12Roan United0-0Green EaglesSuper League

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match