Green Buffaloes vs Nkwazi preview
In the Zambia Super League fixture, Green Buffaloes face Nkwazi with 33% chances for a Green Buffaloes win, 46% for a draw, and 21% for a Nkwazi victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 34%, indicating a low-scoring match.
Both teams to score sits at 18%, and Over 2.5 goals is just 10%. Green Buffaloes have expected goals of 0.64, while Nkwazi has 0.45. Recent form shows Green Buffaloes with a record of D-W-L-L-W-L and Nkwazi at D-L-L-W-W-D. A draw seems probable, but if either team can improve their attacking efficiency, it could lead to a different outcome.
Green Buffaloes vs Nkwazi: model vs market
| Source | Green Buffaloes | Draw | Nkwazi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 46% | 21% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 33% | 46% | 21% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Green Buffaloes and Nkwazi expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.10
- Attack rating (Green Buffaloes / Nkwazi)
- 0.74 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Green Buffaloes / Nkwazi)
- 0.81 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Green Buffaloes vs Nkwazi score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Green Buffaloes goals. Columns: Nkwazi goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Green Buffaloes vs Nkwazi goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 18%
- No goals (0–0)
- 34%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Green Buffaloes vs Nkwazi
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Green Buffaloes | 33% | 2.99 |
| Draw | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Nkwazi | 21% | 4.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 10% | 10.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 90% | 1.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 18% | 5.46 |
| No | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Green Buffaloes or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| X2 (draw or Nkwazi) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Green Buffaloes win by 2+ | 10% | 10.46 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Green Buffaloes and Nkwazi recent form
Green Buffaloes
2W 1D 3L
Nkwazi
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Green Buffaloes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Green Buffaloes at home only, Nkwazi away only.
Green Buffaloes vs Nkwazi head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Green Buffaloes 3 · draws 3 · Nkwazi 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Green Buffaloes | 0-0 | Nkwazi | Zambia Super League |
| 2025-08-17 | Nkwazi | 1-2 | Green Buffaloes | Zambia Super League |
| 2025-04-02 | Nkwazi | 2-0 | Green Buffaloes | Super League |
| 2024-11-27 | Green Buffaloes | 1-2 | Nkwazi | Super League |
| 2024-02-17 | Nkwazi | 2-1 | Green Buffaloes | Super League |
| 2023-09-16 | Green Buffaloes | 0-0 | Nkwazi | Super League |
| 2023-02-25 | Nkwazi | 0-2 | Green Buffaloes | Super League |
| 2022-10-15 | Green Buffaloes | 3-3 | Nkwazi | Super League |
| 2022-01-16 | Green Buffaloes | 0-1 | Nkwazi | Super League |
| 2021-09-18 | Nkwazi | 0-1 | Green Buffaloes | Super League |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Green Eagles v Roan United — match page 2026-10-17
- Man Utd Zambia Academy vs Makeni All Stars — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Red Arrows v Kabwe Warriors — match page 2026-10-17
- Zanaco vs NAPSA Stars 2026-10-17
- Nkana vs Nchanga Rangers 2026-10-18
- ZESCO United vs Mufulira Wanderers — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Power Dynamos vs Trident 2026-10-18
- Chirundu Utd v Mutondo Stars — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Green Buffaloes, previous: Mutondo Stars vs Green Buffaloes prediction
- Green Buffaloes, next: Kabwe Warriors – Green Buffaloes, 2026-10-24
- Nkwazi, previous: Mufulira Wanderers v Nkwazi analysis
- Nkwazi, next: Nkwazi – Green Eagles, 2026-10-24