Chirundu Utd vs Mutondo Stars Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Chirundu Utd vs Mutondo Stars preview

In the Zambia Super League fixture between Chirundu Utd and Mutondo Stars, the 1X2 probabilities show Chirundu Utd at 41%, a draw at 33%, and Mutondo Stars at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 14% chance.

Chirundu Utd has an expected goals figure of 1.15, while Mutondo Stars sits at 0.85. The chances for Over 2.5 goals are 32%, and both teams to score stands at 40%. Recent form indicates Chirundu Utd has drawn and lost in their last two matches, while Mutondo Stars has a mixed record with three losses and two draws in their last five games.

Chirundu Utd vs Mutondo Stars: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Chirundu Utd	Draw	Mutondo Stars
Model	41%	33%	26%
Market	—	—	—
Published	41%	33%	26%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.15 vs 0.85.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Chirundu Utd and Mutondo Stars expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.15Chirundu Utd

0.85Mutondo Stars

Total expected goals: 2.00
Attack rating (Chirundu Utd / Mutondo Stars): 0.71 / 1.16
Defence rating (Chirundu Utd / Mutondo Stars): 1.02 / 1.52

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Chirundu Utd vs Mutondo Stars score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.9% 10.2% 4.9% 1.4% 0.3% 1 14.3% 14.5% 5.6% 1.6% 0.4% 2 9.0% 7.6% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 3 3.5% 2.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 1.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Chirundu Utd goals. Columns: Mutondo Stars goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Chirundu Utd vs Mutondo Stars goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%

Over 1.5 61%

Over 2.5 32%

Over 3.5 14%

Both teams to score: 40%
No goals (0–0): 15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Chirundu Utd vs Mutondo Stars

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Chirundu Utd	41%	2.41
	Draw	33%	3.03
	Mutondo Stars	26%	3.92
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	32%	3.10
	Under 2.5	68%	1.48
Both teams to score	Yes	40%	2.48
	No	60%	1.68
Double chance	1X (Chirundu Utd or draw)	74%	1.34
	12 (either side)	67%	1.49
	X2 (draw or Mutondo Stars)	59%	1.71
Handicap -1	Chirundu Utd win by 2+	18%	5.49
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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