Red Arrows vs Kabwe Warriors: model vs market
| Source | Red Arrows | Draw | Kabwe Warriors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68% | 24% | 8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 68% | 24% | 8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.47.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Red Arrows and Kabwe Warriors expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.22
- Attack rating (Red Arrows / Kabwe Warriors)
- 1.36 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Red Arrows / Kabwe Warriors)
- 0.56 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Red Arrows vs Kabwe Warriors score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Red Arrows goals. Columns: Kabwe Warriors goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Red Arrows vs Kabwe Warriors goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Red Arrows vs Kabwe Warriors
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Red Arrows | 68% | 1.47 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Kabwe Warriors | 8% | 11.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.13 |
| No | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Red Arrows or draw) | 92% | 1.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Kabwe Warriors) | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | Red Arrows win by 2+ | 41% | 2.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Red Arrows and Kabwe Warriors recent form
Red Arrows
4W 2D 0L
Kabwe Warriors
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Red Arrows at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Red Arrows at home only, Kabwe Warriors away only.
Red Arrows vs Kabwe Warriors head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Red Arrows 2 · draws 0 · Kabwe Warriors 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Red Arrows | 3-1 | Kabwe Warriors | Zambia Super League |
| 2025-11-09 | Kabwe Warriors | 0-1 | Red Arrows | Zambia Super League |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Green Eagles v Roan United — match page 2026-10-17
- Man Utd Zambia Academy vs Makeni All Stars — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Zanaco vs NAPSA Stars 2026-10-17
- Kansanshi Dynamos v Konkola Blades — match page 2026-10-17
- Nkana vs Nchanga Rangers 2026-10-18
- ZESCO United vs Mufulira Wanderers — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Green Buffaloes vs Nkwazi — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Power Dynamos vs Trident 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Red Arrows, previous: Green Eagles – Red Arrows, 2026-10-14
- Red Arrows, next: Red Arrows – Kaizer Chiefs, 2026-10-17
- Kabwe Warriors, previous: Chirundu Utd – Kabwe Warriors, 2026-10-15
- Kabwe Warriors, next: Kabwe Warriors – Green Buffaloes, 2026-10-24