ZESCO United vs Mufulira Wanderers preview
In the Zambia Super League fixture between ZESCO United and Mufulira Wanderers, ZESCO United has a strong 73% chance to win according to our model, while Mufulira Wanderers sits at just 7%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 18%. ZESCO United's expected goals are 1.90, compared to Mufulira Wanderers' low 0.42, indicating a significant attacking advantage.
However, the prediction could be challenged if Mufulira Wanderers manages to improve their form, as they have drawn or lost their last six matches. Additionally, with Over 2.5 goals at 41% and both teams to score at 30%, there remains a possibility for a more competitive match than anticipated.
ZESCO United vs Mufulira Wanderers: model vs market
| Source | ZESCO United | Draw | Mufulira Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73% | 21% | 6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 73% | 21% | 6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 0.42.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
ZESCO United and Mufulira Wanderers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.32
- Attack rating (ZESCO United / Mufulira Wanderers)
- 1.37 / 0.62
- Defence rating (ZESCO United / Mufulira Wanderers)
- 0.95 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
ZESCO United vs Mufulira Wanderers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: ZESCO United goals. Columns: Mufulira Wanderers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
ZESCO United vs Mufulira Wanderers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 30%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for ZESCO United vs Mufulira Wanderers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ZESCO United | 73% | 1.38 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.79 | |
| Mufulira Wanderers | 6% | 15.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30% | 3.35 |
| No | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (ZESCO United or draw) | 94% | 1.07 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Mufulira Wanderers) | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | ZESCO United win by 2+ | 46% | 2.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
ZESCO United and Mufulira Wanderers recent form
ZESCO United
3W 1D 2L
Mufulira Wanderers
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
ZESCO United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Mufulira Wanderers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: ZESCO United at home only, Mufulira Wanderers away only.
ZESCO United vs Mufulira Wanderers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: ZESCO United 6 · draws 1 · Mufulira Wanderers 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | ZESCO United | 1-2 | Mufulira Wanderers | Zambia Super League |
| 2025-09-13 | Mufulira Wanderers | 0-1 | ZESCO United | Zambia Super League |
| 2025-02-09 | Mufulira Wanderers | 0-1 | ZESCO United | Super League |
| 2024-09-29 | ZESCO United | 2-0 | Mufulira Wanderers | Super League |
| 2024-06-01 | Mufulira Wanderers | 2-0 | ZESCO United | Super League |
| 2023-12-23 | ZESCO United | 1-1 | Mufulira Wanderers | Super League |
| 2019-04-27 | ZESCO United | 6-0 | Mufulira Wanderers | Super League |
| 2019-03-13 | Mufulira Wanderers | 2-1 | ZESCO United | Super League |
| 2017-12-02 | ZESCO United | 3-2 | Mufulira Wanderers | Super League |
| 2017-07-26 | Mufulira Wanderers | 1-2 | ZESCO United | Super League |
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Before and after this match
- ZESCO United, previous: Roan United vs ZESCO United: odds and pick
- ZESCO United, next: ZESCO United v Mutondo Stars analysis
- Mufulira Wanderers, previous: Mufulira Wanderers v Nkwazi analysis
- Mufulira Wanderers, next: Mufulira Wanderers vs Chirundu Utd: odds and pick