ZESCO United vs Mutondo Stars Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

ZESCO United vs Mutondo Stars preview

In the Zambia Super League fixture, ZESCO United has a 69% chance of winning against Mutondo Stars, who have an 11% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 12% probability. ZESCO United's expected goals are 2.21, while Mutondo Stars sit at 0.79.

However, ZESCO United's recent form shows inconsistency with 2 wins in their last 6 matches. Mutondo Stars, despite their lower probabilities, have shown some resilience with a recent win and a draw. This could challenge the expectation of a straightforward victory for ZESCO United, particularly if both teams manage to score, with a 49% chance of that happening.

ZESCO United vs Mutondo Stars: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	ZESCO United	Draw	Mutondo Stars
Model	69%	20%	11%
Market	—	—	—
Published	69%	20%	11%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 0.79.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

ZESCO United and Mutondo Stars expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.21ZESCO United

0.79Mutondo Stars

Total expected goals: 2.99
Attack rating (ZESCO United / Mutondo Stars): 1.37 / 1.16
Defence rating (ZESCO United / Mutondo Stars): 0.95 / 1.52

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

ZESCO United vs Mutondo Stars score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.9% 3.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 1 10.2% 9.6% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 2 12.2% 9.6% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% 3 9.0% 7.1% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 8.3% 6.5% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2%

Rows: ZESCO United goals. Columns: Mutondo Stars goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

ZESCO United vs Mutondo Stars goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 81%

Over 2.5 58%

Over 3.5 35%

Both teams to score: 49%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for ZESCO United vs Mutondo Stars

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	ZESCO United	69%	1.45
	Draw	20%	4.99
	Mutondo Stars	11%	9.07
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58%	1.74
	Under 2.5	42%	2.35
Both teams to score	Yes	49%	2.03
	No	51%	1.97
Double chance	1X (ZESCO United or draw)	89%	1.12
	12 (either side)	80%	1.25
	X2 (draw or Mutondo Stars)	31%	3.22
Handicap -1	ZESCO United win by 2+	46%	2.18
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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