Konkola Blades vs Nkana Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Konkola Blades vs Nkana preview

In the upcoming match between Konkola Blades and Nkana, the 1X2 probabilities show Konkola Blades at 43%, with Nkana at 28% and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 10% chance according to our model. Konkola Blades has an expected goals figure of 1.43, while Nkana is at 1.11.

While both teams to score stands at 52% and Over 2.5 goals at 47%, a low-scoring game could still occur. Konkola Blades has shown good recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Nkana has had mixed results, winning 3 out of their last 6. This contrast in form could impact the outcome.

Konkola Blades vs Nkana: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Konkola Blades	Draw	Nkana
Model	43%	29%	28%
Market	—	—	—
Published	43%	29%	28%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 1.11.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Konkola Blades and Nkana expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.43Konkola Blades

1.11Nkana

Total expected goals: 2.54
Attack rating (Konkola Blades / Nkana): 1.45 / 1.29
Defence rating (Konkola Blades / Nkana): 1.21 / 0.93

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Konkola Blades vs Nkana score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.2% 7.5% 4.9% 1.8% 0.6% 1 10.0% 13.8% 7.0% 2.6% 0.9% 2 8.0% 8.9% 5.0% 1.8% 0.7% 3 3.8% 4.2% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 1.9% 2.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Konkola Blades goals. Columns: Nkana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Konkola Blades vs Nkana goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 73%

Over 2.5 47%

Over 3.5 25%

Both teams to score: 52%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Konkola Blades vs Nkana

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Konkola Blades	43%	2.33
	Draw	29%	3.46
	Nkana	28%	3.55
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	47%	2.15
	Under 2.5	53%	1.87
Both teams to score	Yes	52%	1.91
	No	48%	2.09
Double chance	1X (Konkola Blades or draw)	72%	1.39
	12 (either side)	71%	1.41
	X2 (draw or Nkana)	57%	1.75
Handicap -1	Konkola Blades win by 2+	21%	4.70
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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