Roan United vs Red Arrows Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Roan United vs Red Arrows preview

In the upcoming match between Roan United and Red Arrows, the 1X2 probabilities are 19% for Roan United, 40% for a draw, and 41% for Red Arrows. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which has a 21% chance of occurring.

Roan United's expected goals stand at 0.49, while Red Arrows have a higher figure of 0.86. The low percentages for Over 2.5 goals at 16% and both teams to score at 24% suggest a low-scoring game could be on the cards. However, unexpected performances or defensive errors could change the outcome.

Roan United vs Red Arrows: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Roan United	Draw	Red Arrows
Model	19%	40%	41%
Market	—	—	—
Published	19%	40%	41%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.86 vs 0.49.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Roan United and Red Arrows expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.49Roan United

0.86Red Arrows

Total expected goals: 1.36
Attack rating (Roan United / Red Arrows): 0.88 / 1.34
Defence rating (Roan United / Red Arrows): 0.91 / 0.53

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Roan United vs Red Arrows score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 26.8% 21.2% 9.6% 2.8% 0.7% 1 11.6% 12.1% 4.7% 1.4% 0.4% 2 3.1% 2.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 3 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Roan United goals. Columns: Red Arrows goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Roan United vs Red Arrows goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 73%

Over 1.5 40%

Over 2.5 16%

Over 3.5 5%

Both teams to score: 24%
No goals (0–0): 27%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Roan United vs Red Arrows

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Roan United	19%	5.34
	Draw	40%	2.49
	Red Arrows	41%	2.43
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	16%	6.40
	Under 2.5	84%	1.19
Both teams to score	Yes	24%	4.24
	No	76%	1.31
Double chance	1X (Roan United or draw)	59%	1.70
	12 (either side)	60%	1.67
	X2 (draw or Red Arrows)	81%	1.23
Handicap -1	Red Arrows win by 2+	15%	6.71
	Push (exactly one goal)	26%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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