Nkwazi vs Green Eagles Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Nkwazi vs Green Eagles preview

In the match between Nkwazi and Green Eagles, the 1X2 probabilities show Nkwazi at 26%, a draw at 41%, and Green Eagles at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 27% chance, indicating a low-scoring game.

Both teams have struggled to score, with expected goals of 0.63 for Nkwazi and 0.72 for Green Eagles. The model suggests a 15% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 25% chance for both teams to score. Recent form shows Nkwazi with 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 matches, while Green Eagles have 3 wins but 3 losses in their last 5, which could affect their performance.

Nkwazi vs Green Eagles: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Nkwazi	Draw	Green Eagles
Model	26%	41%	32%
Market	—	—	—
Published	26%	41%	32%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Nkwazi and Green Eagles expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.63Nkwazi

0.72Green Eagles

Total expected goals: 1.35
Attack rating (Nkwazi / Green Eagles): 0.78 / 1.23
Defence rating (Nkwazi / Green Eagles): 0.83 / 0.76

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Nkwazi vs Green Eagles score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 27.1% 17.5% 6.7% 1.6% 0.3% 1 15.1% 12.9% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2% 2 5.1% 3.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 3 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Nkwazi goals. Columns: Green Eagles goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Nkwazi vs Green Eagles goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 73%

Over 1.5 40%

Over 2.5 15%

Over 3.5 5%

Both teams to score: 25%
No goals (0–0): 27%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Nkwazi vs Green Eagles

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Nkwazi	26%	3.78
	Draw	41%	2.41
	Green Eagles	32%	3.11
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	15%	6.46
	Under 2.5	85%	1.18
Both teams to score	Yes	25%	3.97
	No	75%	1.34
Double chance	1X (Nkwazi or draw)	68%	1.47
	12 (either side)	59%	1.71
	X2 (draw or Green Eagles)	74%	1.36
Handicap -1	Green Eagles win by 2+	10%	9.98
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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