Mufulira Wanderers vs Chirundu Utd Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Mufulira Wanderers vs Chirundu Utd preview

Mufulira Wanderers face Chirundu Utd with a 29% probability for each team to win, while a draw stands at 42%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 27%. Both teams have struggled to score, with expected goals of 0.67 for each side, indicating a tight match.

The low chances for Over 2.5 goals at 15% and both teams to score at 25% suggest a defensive battle. Recent form shows Mufulira Wanderers with five games without a win, while Chirundu Utd has one draw and one loss in their last two matches. This context could lead to a different outcome than predicted.

Mufulira Wanderers vs Chirundu Utd: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Mufulira Wanderers	Draw	Chirundu Utd
Model	29%	42%	29%
Market	—	—	—
Published	29%	42%	29%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Mufulira Wanderers and Chirundu Utd expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.67Mufulira Wanderers

0.67Chirundu Utd

Total expected goals: 1.34
Attack rating (Mufulira Wanderers / Chirundu Utd): 0.62 / 0.71
Defence rating (Mufulira Wanderers / Chirundu Utd): 1.31 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mufulira Wanderers vs Chirundu Utd score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 27.4% 16.4% 5.9% 1.3% 0.3% 1 16.4% 12.9% 3.9% 0.9% 0.2% 2 5.9% 3.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 3 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Mufulira Wanderers goals. Columns: Chirundu Utd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mufulira Wanderers vs Chirundu Utd goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 73%

Over 1.5 40%

Over 2.5 15%

Over 3.5 5%

Both teams to score: 25%
No goals (0–0): 27%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mufulira Wanderers vs Chirundu Utd

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Mufulira Wanderers	29%	3.43
	Draw	42%	2.40
	Chirundu Utd	29%	3.44
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	15%	6.60
	Under 2.5	85%	1.18
Both teams to score	Yes	25%	4.01
	No	75%	1.33
Double chance	1X (Mufulira Wanderers or draw)	71%	1.41
	12 (either side)	58%	1.72
	X2 (draw or Chirundu Utd)	71%	1.41
Handicap -1	Mufulira Wanderers win by 2+	9%	11.69
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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