Nkana vs Nchanga Rangers preview
In the upcoming match between Nkana and Nchanga Rangers, the 1X2 probabilities show Nkana at 63% and Nchanga Rangers at 11%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an 18% chance according to our model. Nkana's expected goals stand at 1.60, while Nchanga Rangers have a much lower figure of 0.52.
However, there are factors that could influence the outcome. Nkana's recent form includes two wins followed by a draw and two losses, while Nchanga Rangers have struggled, with four losses and only one draw in their last six matches. The chances for Over 2.5 goals are at 36%, and both teams to score is at 33%, indicating a potential for a low-scoring game.
Nkana vs Nchanga Rangers: model vs market
| Source | Nkana | Draw | Nchanga Rangers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 26% | 11% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 63% | 26% | 11% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.52.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Nkana and Nchanga Rangers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.12
- Attack rating (Nkana / Nchanga Rangers)
- 1.29 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Nkana / Nchanga Rangers)
- 0.93 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nkana vs Nchanga Rangers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nkana goals. Columns: Nchanga Rangers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nkana vs Nchanga Rangers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 33%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nkana vs Nchanga Rangers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nkana | 63% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Nchanga Rangers | 11% | 9.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33% | 3.01 |
| No | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nkana or draw) | 89% | 1.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Nchanga Rangers) | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nkana win by 2+ | 36% | 2.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nkana and Nchanga Rangers recent form
Nkana
3W 1D 2L
Nchanga Rangers
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nkana at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Nchanga Rangers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Nkana at home only, Nchanga Rangers away only.
Nkana vs Nchanga Rangers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Nkana 3 · draws 4 · Nchanga Rangers 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Nkana | 0-1 | Nchanga Rangers | Zambia Super League |
| 2025-12-07 | Nchanga Rangers | 1-1 | Nkana | Zambia Super League |
| 2025-02-22 | Nchanga Rangers | 2-0 | Nkana | Super League |
| 2024-10-23 | Nkana | 0-0 | Nchanga Rangers | Super League |
| 2023-02-12 | Nkana | 3-1 | Nchanga Rangers | Super League |
| 2022-10-01 | Nchanga Rangers | 1-1 | Nkana | Super League |
| 2018-09-19 | Nchanga Rangers | 0-2 | Nkana | Super League |
| 2018-06-13 | Nkana | 2-0 | Nchanga Rangers | Super League |
| 2017-08-06 | Nkana | 1-1 | Nchanga Rangers | Super League |
| 2017-04-14 | Nchanga Rangers | 1-0 | Nkana | Super League |
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Before and after this match
- Nkana, previous: NAPSA Stars vs Nkana: odds and pick
- Nkana, next: Konkola Blades vs Nkana prediction
- Nchanga Rangers, previous: Nchanga Rangers vs Trident prediction
- Nchanga Rangers, next: NAPSA Stars vs Nchanga Rangers prediction