Updated

Zambia Super League · Matchday 4

Man Utd Zambia Academy vs Makeni All Stars

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Man Utd Zambia Academy to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Man Utd Zambia AcademyDrawMakeni All Stars

Man Utd Zambia Academy vs Makeni All Stars: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMan Utd Zambia AcademyDrawMakeni All Stars
Model71%19%9%
Market———
Published71%19%9%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 0.70.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Man Utd Zambia Academy and Makeni All Stars expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.23Man Utd Zambia Academy
0.70Makeni All Stars
Total expected goals
2.93
Attack rating (Man Utd Zambia Academy / Makeni All Stars)
1.51 / 0.88
Defence rating (Man Utd Zambia Academy / Makeni All Stars)
1.11 / 1.39

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Man Utd Zambia Academy vs Makeni All Stars score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.2% 2.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 1 11.1% 9.2% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 2 13.3% 9.3% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 3 9.9% 6.9% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 9.3% 6.5% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Man Utd Zambia Academy goals. Columns: Makeni All Stars goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Man Utd Zambia Academy vs Makeni All Stars goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Man Utd Zambia Academy vs Makeni All Stars

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Man Utd Zambia Academy71%1.40
Draw19%5.21
Makeni All Stars9%10.71
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.78
Under 2.544%2.28
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.19
No54%1.84
Double chance1X (Man Utd Zambia Academy or draw)91%1.10
12 (either side)81%1.24
X2 (draw or Makeni All Stars)29%3.50
Handicap -1Man Utd Zambia Academy win by 2+48%2.07
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Man Utd Zambia Academy and Makeni All Stars recent form

Man Utd Zambia Academy 4W 1D 1L
Makeni All Stars 0W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Man Utd Zambia Academy at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Makeni All Stars away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
4.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Man Utd Zambia Academy at home only, Makeni All Stars away only.

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match