Updated

Zambia Super League · Matchday 4

Kansanshi Dynamos vs Konkola Blades

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Kansanshi Dynamos to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Kansanshi DynamosDrawKonkola Blades

Kansanshi Dynamos vs Konkola Blades: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKansanshi DynamosDrawKonkola Blades
Model35%32%33%
Market———
Published35%32%33%
Edge———

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Kansanshi Dynamos and Konkola Blades expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.12Kansanshi Dynamos
1.08Konkola Blades
Total expected goals
2.20
Attack rating (Kansanshi Dynamos / Konkola Blades)
0.94 / 1.47
Defence rating (Kansanshi Dynamos / Konkola Blades)
1.03 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kansanshi Dynamos vs Konkola Blades score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.4% 10.6% 6.4% 2.3% 0.8% 1 11.1% 14.7% 7.2% 2.6% 0.9% 2 7.0% 7.5% 4.1% 1.5% 0.5% 3 2.6% 2.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Kansanshi Dynamos goals. Columns: Konkola Blades goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kansanshi Dynamos vs Konkola Blades goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 66%
Over 2.5 38%
Over 3.5 18%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kansanshi Dynamos vs Konkola Blades

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Kansanshi Dynamos35%2.84
Draw32%3.14
Konkola Blades33%3.03
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.538%2.65
Under 2.562%1.61
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.18
No54%1.85
Double chance1X (Kansanshi Dynamos or draw)67%1.49
12 (either side)68%1.47
X2 (draw or Konkola Blades)65%1.54
Handicap -1Kansanshi Dynamos win by 2+15%6.69
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Kansanshi Dynamos and Konkola Blades recent form

Kansanshi Dynamos 1W 3D 2L
Konkola Blades 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Konkola Blades away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Kansanshi Dynamos at home only, Konkola Blades away only.

Kansanshi Dynamos vs Konkola Blades head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Kansanshi Dynamos 2 · draws 1 · Konkola Blades 3.

Kansanshi DynamosDrawsKonkola Blades
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-15Konkola Blades2-1Kansanshi DynamosZambia Super League
2025-08-30Kansanshi Dynamos1-1Konkola BladesZambia Super League
2024-03-02Konkola Blades1-0Kansanshi DynamosSuper League
2023-10-01Kansanshi Dynamos0-1Konkola BladesSuper League
2022-03-30Konkola Blades0-2Kansanshi DynamosSuper League
2021-11-05Kansanshi Dynamos1-0Konkola BladesSuper League

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match