Nueva Chicago vs San Martin S.J. preview
In the fixture between Nueva Chicago and San Martin S.J., the 1X2 probabilities show Nueva Chicago at 30%, a draw at 38%, and San Martin S.J. at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, which occurs with a 21% probability.
Both teams have struggled recently, with Nueva Chicago recording L-L-L-W-D-L and San Martin S.J. at D-D-L-L-W-D. The expected goals are close, with Nueva Chicago at 0.79 and San Martin S.J. at 0.84. The low percentages for Over 2.5 goals at 22% and both teams to score at 32% suggest a tight match, but any significant improvement in attacking form could change the outcome.
Nueva Chicago vs San Martin S.J.: model vs market
| Source | Nueva Chicago | Draw | San Martin S.J. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 38% | 33% |
| Market | 35% | 33% | 33% |
| Published | 33% | 34% | 33% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.88, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Nueva Chicago vs San Martin S.J. odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Draw, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nueva Chicago | 2.70 | 2.63 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 2.73 | 2.76 | +0.03 |
| San Martin S.J. | 2.80 | 2.80 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nueva Chicago and San Martin S.J. expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.63
- Attack rating (Nueva Chicago / San Martin S.J.)
- 0.61 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Nueva Chicago / San Martin S.J.)
- 1.09 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nueva Chicago vs San Martin S.J. score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nueva Chicago goals. Columns: San Martin S.J. goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nueva Chicago vs San Martin S.J. goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 21%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nueva Chicago vs San Martin S.J.
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nueva Chicago | 33% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.93 | |
| San Martin S.J. | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22% | 4.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.10 |
| No | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nueva Chicago or draw) | 67% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| X2 (draw or San Martin S.J.) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nueva Chicago win by 2+ | 10% | 10.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nueva Chicago and San Martin S.J. recent form
Nueva Chicago
1W 1D 4L
San Martin S.J.
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nueva Chicago at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-8-4
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 17
- They have won 9 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 18 of 34 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Martin S.J. away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-8
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 0.82
- Goals against / match
- 1.18
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 12 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Nueva Chicago at home only, San Martin S.J. away only.
Nueva Chicago vs San Martin S.J. head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Nueva Chicago 1 · draws 3 · San Martin S.J. 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | San Martin S.J. | 1-0 | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
| 2024-12-01 | San Martin S.J. | 1-0 | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
| 2024-11-24 | Nueva Chicago | 2-1 | San Martin S.J. | Primera Nacional |
| 2023-08-16 | Nueva Chicago | 0-0 | San Martin S.J. | Primera Nacional |
| 2023-04-06 | San Martin S.J. | 0-0 | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
| 2022-05-21 | San Martin S.J. | 3-1 | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
| 2020-11-29 | San Martin S.J. | 1-0 | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
| 2019-11-16 | San Martin S.J. | 1-0 | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
| 2015-07-27 | Nueva Chicago | 0-0 | San Martin S.J. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Patronato vs Agropecuario 2026-10-25
- Temperley v Chacarita Juniors — match page 2026-10-25
- Gimnasia Jujuy v Atlanta — match page 2026-10-25
- Atletico Mitre vs Godoy Cruz — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Central Norte vs Acassuso — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Deportivo Maipu vs Club Atlético Güemes 2026-10-25
- Midland vs Gimnasia Y Tiro — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Defensores De Belgrano vs San Miguel — team news & stats 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Nueva Chicago, previous: Nueva Chicago v Gimnasia Jujuy analysis
- Nueva Chicago, next: Chacarita Juniors v Nueva Chicago analysis
- San Martin S.J., previous: San Martin S.J. vs Temperley prediction
- San Martin S.J., next: San Martin S.J. vs Gimnasia Jujuy prediction