Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense preview

In the upcoming match between Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense, the 1X2 probabilities show Fluminense at 52%, compared to Chapecoense-sc's 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance. Chapecoense-sc has struggled recently, with a record of L-L-L-D-L-W, while Fluminense's form is L-L-W-W-L-L.

The expected goals suggest Chapecoense-sc will score 1.14, while Fluminense is projected at 1.89. With Over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 59%, there is potential for a high-scoring game. However, if Chapecoense-sc improves their form or Fluminense underperforms, these predictions could be off.

Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Chapecoense-sc	Draw	Fluminense
Model	21%	25%	53%
Market	23%	26%	51%
Published	23%	26%	51%
Edge	-1%	0%	+1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.06.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.92, recorded 2026-10-23 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Fluminense, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.85Now 1.85 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Chapecoense-sc	4.10	4.00	-0.10
Draw	3.45	3.60	+0.15
Fluminense	1.85	1.85	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.06Chapecoense-sc

1.78Fluminense

Total expected goals: 2.84
Attack rating (Chapecoense-sc / Fluminense): 0.74 / 1.13
Defence rating (Chapecoense-sc / Fluminense): 1.48 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.9% 9.3% 9.3% 5.5% 3.7% 1 5.1% 12.1% 9.8% 5.8% 3.9% 2 3.3% 5.8% 5.2% 3.1% 2.1% 3 1.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.1% 0.7% 4+ 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Chapecoense-sc goals. Columns: Fluminense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 79%

Over 2.5 54%

Over 3.5 32%

Both teams to score: 55%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Chapecoense-sc	23%	4.37
	Draw	26%	3.87
	Fluminense	51%	1.95
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54%	1.85
	Under 2.5	46%	2.17
Both teams to score	Yes	55%	1.81
	No	45%	2.24
Double chance	1X (Chapecoense-sc or draw)	49%	2.05
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Fluminense)	77%	1.30
Handicap -1	Fluminense win by 2+	31%	3.27
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense recent form

Chapecoense-sc 1W 1D 4L

Fluminense 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Chapecoense-sc at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-5-7
Win rate: 14%
Goals for / match: 1.36
Goals against / match: 2.36
Clean sheets: 2 of 14

They have won 3 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Fluminense away

Record (W-D-L): 3-6-6
Win rate: 20%
Goals for / match: 1.33
Goals against / match: 1.53
Clean sheets: 1 of 15

They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Chapecoense-sc at home only, Fluminense away only.