Coritiba vs Gremio preview
In the match between Coritiba and Gremio, the 1X2 probabilities show Coritiba at 42%, Gremio at 31%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with an 8% chance. Both teams are struggling, with Coritiba's recent form showing 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Gremio has also secured just 1 win in their last 6.
The expected goals for both teams are equal at 1.46, suggesting a balanced contest. However, the prediction could be affected by the teams' poor form, as both have not won recently. With a 56% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 60% likelihood for both teams to score, the match could still yield a surprising outcome.
Coritiba vs Gremio: model vs market
| Source | Coritiba | Draw | Gremio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Published | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Coritiba vs Gremio odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Coritiba, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba | 2.13 | 2.17 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.29 | 3.40 | +0.10 |
| Gremio | 3.31 | 3.25 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Coritiba and Gremio expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.93
- Attack rating (Coritiba / Gremio)
- 0.85 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Coritiba / Gremio)
- 1.47 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Coritiba vs Gremio score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Coritiba goals. Columns: Gremio goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Coritiba vs Gremio goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Coritiba vs Gremio
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coritiba | 42% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Gremio | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Coritiba or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Gremio) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Coritiba win by 2+ | 18% | 5.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Coritiba and Gremio recent form
Coritiba
0W 2D 4L
Gremio
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Coritiba at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-5
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gremio away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-5-10
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.53
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 15
- They have won 7 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Coritiba at home only, Gremio away only.
Coritiba vs Gremio head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Coritiba 0 · draws 0 · Gremio 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Gremio | 1-0 | Coritiba | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- Internacional v Botafogo — match page 2026-10-24
- Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Mirassol v Sao Paulo — match page 2026-10-24
- Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians 2026-10-24
- Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Santos v Bahia — match page 2026-10-25
- Flamengo vs Atletico-MG 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Coritiba, previous: Atletico-MG v Coritiba analysis
- Coritiba, next: Coritiba – Vitoria, 2026-10-29
- Gremio, previous: Gremio vs Cruzeiro: odds and pick
- Gremio, next: Gremio v Atletico Paranaense analysis