Updated

Brazil Serie A · Matchday 32

Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians

· São Januário, Rio de Janeiro· Referee Wilton Sampaio

Alin prediction Vasco DA Gama to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 0

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Vasco DA GamaDrawCorinthians
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.62.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
Vasco DA Gama1.75 Draw3.91 Corinthians5.10

Price as of

Expected return at 1.75: +4.0% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 9 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians preview

In the upcoming match between Vasco DA Gama and Corinthians, the 1X2 probabilities show Vasco DA Gama at 58% to win, while Corinthians sits at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 16% chance according to our model. Vasco DA Gama's expected goals are 2.18, significantly higher than Corinthians' 0.49, reflecting their recent form of L-W-D-W-W-W compared to Corinthians' L-L-L-L-L-D.

However, the head-to-head record indicates that Vasco DA Gama has not won any of the last 5 encounters, with Corinthians winning 4 and 1 draw. This historical performance could influence the outcome, despite the current statistical advantage for Vasco DA Gama. The possibility of Over 2.5 goals stands at 50%, while both teams to score is at 35%.

Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceVasco DA GamaDrawCorinthians
Model70%21%9%
Market56%25%19%
Published59%24%16%
Edge+4%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.62.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Vasco DA Gama below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Vasco DA Gama, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.85Now 1.68 -0.17
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Vasco DA Gama1.851.68-0.17
Draw3.503.70+0.20
Corinthians4.115.00+0.89

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Vasco DA Gama and Corinthians expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.04Vasco DA Gama
0.62Corinthians
Total expected goals
2.66
Attack rating (Vasco DA Gama / Corinthians)
1.07 / 0.77
Defence rating (Vasco DA Gama / Corinthians)
0.76 / 1.26

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.9% 3.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 1 13.4% 9.7% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 2 14.6% 9.0% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 3 9.9% 6.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 8.1% 5.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Vasco DA Gama goals. Columns: Corinthians goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
41%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Vasco DA Gama59%1.68
Draw24%4.13
Corinthians16%6.10
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550%2.01
Under 2.550%1.99
Both teams to scoreYes41%2.44
No59%1.69
Double chance1X (Vasco DA Gama or draw)84%1.20
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Corinthians)41%2.46
Handicap -1Vasco DA Gama win by 2+46%2.20
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Vasco DA Gama and Corinthians recent form

Vasco DA Gama 3W 1D 2L
Corinthians 0W 1D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Vasco DA Gama at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-3-5
Win rate
47%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
3 of 15
  • They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Corinthians away

Record (W-D-L)
3-5-7
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.07
Goals against / match
1.47
Clean sheets
4 of 15
  • They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Vasco DA Gama at home only, Corinthians away only.

Injuries & availability

Vasco DA Gama absences

  • C. Cuesta inactive
  • Cauan Barros inactive
  • Mateus Carvalho knee injury

Corinthians absences

  • Kayke knee injury
  • Raniele inactive
  • Z. Labyad knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Vasco DA Gama 0 · draws 1 · Corinthians 4.

Vasco DA GamaDrawsCorinthians
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-26Corinthians1-0Vasco DA GamaBrazil Serie A
2025-12-21Vasco DA Gama1-2CorinthiansCopa Do Brasil
2025-12-18Corinthians0-0Vasco DA GamaCopa Do Brasil
2025-08-24Vasco DA Gama2-3CorinthiansBrazil Serie A
2025-04-05Corinthians3-0Vasco DA GamaBrazil Serie A

Other Matchday 32 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Vasco DA Gama to win Predicted score 2 – 0 C Bet on Vasco DA Gama
Our pick: Vasco DA Gama to win 18+ Bet Now