Internacional vs Botafogo preview
In the Brazil Serie A fixture between Internacional and Botafogo, the 1X2 probabilities indicate a 47% chance for Internacional to win, compared to 25% for Botafogo. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% probability. The expected goals suggest Internacional will score 1.34, while Botafogo is expected to net 0.88.
However, the recent form shows Internacional with two losses in their last three matches, while Botafogo has two wins in the same period. This inconsistency could affect the outcome, making it possible for Botafogo to perform better than expected. Additionally, the chances of Over 2.5 goals stand at 38%, and both teams to score is at 44%, indicating a potential for a more dynamic match than the expected scoreline suggests.
Internacional vs Botafogo: model vs market
| Source | Internacional | Draw | Botafogo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 31% | 24% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Published | 47% | 27% | 25% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.88.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Internacional vs Botafogo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Internacional, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 2.05 | 1.95 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.60 | +0.18 |
| Botafogo | 3.46 | 3.60 | +0.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Internacional and Botafogo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.22
- Attack rating (Internacional / Botafogo)
- 0.82 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Internacional / Botafogo)
- 1.06 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Internacional vs Botafogo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Internacional goals. Columns: Botafogo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Internacional vs Botafogo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Internacional vs Botafogo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Internacional | 47% | 2.11 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Botafogo | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.25 |
| No | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Internacional or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Botafogo) | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Internacional win by 2+ | 22% | 4.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Internacional and Botafogo recent form
Internacional
2W 1D 3L
Botafogo
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Internacional at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-6
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.13
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 7 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Botafogo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-8
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.73
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 15
- They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Internacional at home only, Botafogo away only.
Injuries & availability
Internacional absences
- A. Sanabria inactive
-
Allex
inactive
- Anthoni knee injury
- G. Maripan muscle injury
-
G. Mercado
yellow cards
-
Kayky
ankle injury
- Matheus Cunha suspended
-
R. Villagra
yellow cards
-
S. Rochet
lower back injury
- Vitinho yellow cards
Botafogo absences
- Arthur Chaves inactive
-
J. Barrera
ankle injury
-
Kaio Pantaleao
knee injury
- L. Monzon inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Internacional vs Botafogo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Internacional 1 · draws 1 · Botafogo 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Botafogo | 2-2 | Internacional | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-10-04 | Internacional | 2-0 | Botafogo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-05-11 | Botafogo | 4-0 | Internacional | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- Cruzeiro v Remo — match page 2026-10-23
- Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Mirassol v Sao Paulo — match page 2026-10-24
- Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians 2026-10-24
- Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Santos v Bahia — match page 2026-10-25
- Coritiba vs Gremio 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Internacional, previous: Mirassol vs Internacional prediction
- Internacional, next: Fluminense vs Internacional prediction
- Botafogo, previous: Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc prediction
- Botafogo, next: Remo vs Botafogo prediction