Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense preview
In the upcoming match between Vitoria and Atletico Paranaense, the 1X2 probabilities show Vitoria at 38% and Atletico Paranaense at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. Vitoria has an expected goals figure of 1.82, while Atletico Paranaense has 1.63.
Both teams to score has a probability of 68%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 67%. However, Vitoria's recent form shows inconsistency with a record of L-W-L-D-W-L, which could affect their performance. Atletico Paranaense's recent form is slightly better at L-W-D-W-D-L, but they have lost twice in their last three meetings against Vitoria.
Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense: model vs market
| Source | Vitoria | Draw | Atletico Paranaense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Market | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Published | 38% | 27% | 34% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vitoria, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria | 2.55 | 2.56 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.24 | 3.31 | +0.07 |
| Atletico Paranaense | 2.67 | 2.73 | +0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vitoria and Atletico Paranaense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.39
- Attack rating (Vitoria / Atletico Paranaense)
- 0.96 / 1.35
- Defence rating (Vitoria / Atletico Paranaense)
- 1.10 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vitoria goals. Columns: Atletico Paranaense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitoria | 38% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Atletico Paranaense | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vitoria or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Paranaense) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vitoria win by 2+ | 24% | 4.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vitoria and Atletico Paranaense recent form
Vitoria
2W 2D 2L
Atletico Paranaense
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vitoria at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-1-4
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Atletico Paranaense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-6
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Vitoria at home only, Atletico Paranaense away only.
Injuries & availability
Vitoria absences
-
Baralhas
broken leg
-
Camutanga
broken leg
-
Dudu
back injury
-
Edu
achilles tendon injury
-
Fabiano
knee injury
-
Nathan Mendes
knee injury
-
Ramon
leg injury
- Rene yellow cards
-
Riccieli
calf injury
Atletico Paranaense absences
-
C. Teran
inactive
-
Claudinho
injury
- Dantas inactive
-
G. Benavidez
muscle injury
- K. A. Calderon Vargas inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Vitoria 1 · draws 0 · Atletico Paranaense 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Vitoria | 4-0 | Atletico Paranaense | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2026-08-04 | Atletico Paranaense | 2-0 | Vitoria | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2026-04-26 | Atletico Paranaense | 3-1 | Vitoria | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- Cruzeiro v Remo — match page 2026-10-23
- Internacional v Botafogo — match page 2026-10-24
- Mirassol v Sao Paulo — match page 2026-10-24
- Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians 2026-10-24
- Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Santos v Bahia — match page 2026-10-25
- Coritiba vs Gremio 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Vitoria, previous: Corinthians vs Vitoria prediction
- Vitoria, next: Coritiba – Vitoria, 2026-10-29
- Atletico Paranaense, previous: Atletico Paranaense – Palmeiras, 2026-10-17
- Atletico Paranaense, next: Gremio v Atletico Paranaense analysis