Santos vs Bahia Prediction & Betting Tips 25/10/2026

Santos vs Bahia preview

In the match between Santos and Bahia, the 1X2 probabilities show Santos at 42%, while Bahia stands at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. Santos has an expected goals figure of 1.62, compared to Bahia's 1.24.

Santos' recent form includes 3 wins and 3 losses over their last 6 matches, while Bahia has been stronger with 5 wins in their last 6. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty. Factors like a sudden change in form or injuries could affect the outcome, especially considering Bahia's recent head-to-head advantage with 1 win and 2 draws in their last 3 encounters.

Santos vs Bahia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Santos	Draw	Bahia
Model	54%	25%	21%
Market	49%	25%	26%
Published	50%	25%	25%
Edge	+1%	0%	-1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.09.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded 2026-10-23 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Santos vs Bahia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Santos, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 2.24Now 1.92 -0.31

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Santos	2.24	1.92	-0.31
Draw	3.43	3.72	+0.29
Bahia	3.00	3.62	+0.62

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Santos and Bahia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.84Santos

1.09Bahia

Total expected goals: 2.93
Attack rating (Santos / Bahia): 1.21 / 0.99
Defence rating (Santos / Bahia): 1.04 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Santos vs Bahia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 4.7% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4% 1 8.7% 11.8% 5.8% 2.1% 0.7% 2 9.0% 9.9% 5.4% 2.0% 0.7% 3 5.5% 6.0% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 4+ 3.9% 4.2% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Santos goals. Columns: Bahia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Santos vs Bahia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 80%

Over 2.5 56%

Over 3.5 34%

Both teams to score: 57%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Santos vs Bahia

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Santos	50%	2.00
	Draw	25%	3.97
	Bahia	25%	4.04
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	56%	1.78
	Under 2.5	44%	2.28
Both teams to score	Yes	57%	1.76
	No	43%	2.32
Double chance	1X (Santos or draw)	75%	1.33
	12 (either side)	75%	1.34
	X2 (draw or Bahia)	50%	2.00
Handicap -1	Santos win by 2+	31%	3.19
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Santos and Bahia recent form

Santos 3W 1D 2L

Bahia 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Santos at home

Record (W-D-L): 6-5-4
Win rate: 40%
Goals for / match: 1.47
Goals against / match: 1.33
Clean sheets: 3 of 15

They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
They have failed to score in 3 of 30 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Bahia away

Record (W-D-L): 6-4-5
Win rate: 40%
Goals for / match: 1.40
Goals against / match: 1.47
Clean sheets: 4 of 15

They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
They have kept 9 clean sheets in 30 matches.
They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
They have converted 8 of 11 penalties (73%).
38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Santos at home only, Bahia away only.