Updated

Brazil Serie A · Matchday 32

Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino

· Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo· Referee Braulio da Silva Machado

Alin prediction Palmeiras to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PalmeirasDrawRB Bragantino
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.62.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Palmeiras is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Palmeiras1.59 Draw4.39 RB Bragantino6.25

Price as of

Expected return at 1.59: -1.8% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino preview

In the match between Palmeiras and RB Bragantino, Palmeiras has a 61% chance to win, while RB Bragantino sits at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with Palmeiras expected to score 1.76 goals compared to RB Bragantino's 0.62. This suggests a strong defensive performance from Palmeiras, which could limit scoring opportunities for their opponents.

However, the prediction could be challenged if RB Bragantino improves their recent form, which includes 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 matches. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 43% and both teams to score at 39%, indicating that while Palmeiras is favored, there’s still a chance for a different outcome.

Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePalmeirasDrawRB Bragantino
Model64%24%11%
Market61%23%16%
Published62%23%15%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.62.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.59, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Palmeiras, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.57Now 1.54 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Palmeiras1.571.54-0.03
Draw3.884.14+0.26
RB Bragantino5.785.72-0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Palmeiras and RB Bragantino expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.76Palmeiras
0.62RB Bragantino
Total expected goals
2.38
Attack rating (Palmeiras / RB Bragantino)
1.12 / 0.98
Defence rating (Palmeiras / RB Bragantino)
0.59 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.2% 4.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 1 15.3% 11.1% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 2 14.4% 8.9% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 3 8.5% 5.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 5.6% 3.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Palmeiras goals. Columns: RB Bragantino goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 70%
Over 2.5 43%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
39%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Palmeiras62%1.62
Draw23%4.33
RB Bragantino15%6.60
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543%2.35
Under 2.557%1.74
Both teams to scoreYes39%2.55
No61%1.65
Double chance1X (Palmeiras or draw)85%1.18
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or RB Bragantino)38%2.62
Handicap -1Palmeiras win by 2+38%2.62
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Palmeiras and RB Bragantino recent form

Palmeiras 4W 1D 1L
RB Bragantino 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Palmeiras at home

Record (W-D-L)
11-3-1
Win rate
73%
Goals for / match
1.87
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
6 of 15
  • They have won 18 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

RB Bragantino away

Record (W-D-L)
4-5-7
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.94
Goals against / match
1.19
Clean sheets
3 of 16
  • They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Palmeiras at home only, RB Bragantino away only.

Injuries & availability

Palmeiras absences

  • Andreas Pereira suspended
  • J. Piquerez yellow cards
  • Jefte knee injury
  • Vitor Roque inactive

RB Bragantino absences

  • Davi Gomes knee injury
  • Eric Ramires yellow cards
  • H. Mosquera inactive
  • Rodriguinho inactive

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Palmeiras 3 · draws 0 · RB Bragantino 0.

PalmeirasDrawsRB Bragantino
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-26RB Bragantino0-1PalmeirasBrazil Serie A
2025-10-15Palmeiras5-1RB BragantinoBrazil Serie A
2025-05-18RB Bragantino1-2PalmeirasBrazil Serie A

Other Matchday 32 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Palmeiras to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Palmeiras
Our pick: Palmeiras to win 18+ Bet Now