Mirassol vs Sao Paulo Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Mirassol vs Sao Paulo preview

In the upcoming match between Mirassol and Sao Paulo, the 1X2 probabilities show Mirassol at 42% to win, while Sao Paulo sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0, with a 15% chance. Mirassol has a slight edge in expected goals at 1.16 compared to Sao Paulo's 0.81.

However, the prediction could change if both teams score, which our model estimates at 39%. Recent form also plays a role, with Mirassol having a mixed record of W-L-D-W-D-W and Sao Paulo showing W-W-L-L-W-D. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.

Mirassol vs Sao Paulo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Mirassol	Draw	Sao Paulo
Model	42%	33%	24%
Market	40%	29%	30%
Published	41%	30%	29%
Edge	0%	+1%	-2%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.15 vs 0.81.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded 2026-10-23 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Mirassol vs Sao Paulo odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Mirassol, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 2.23Now 2.33 +0.10

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Mirassol	2.23	2.33	+0.10
Draw	3.21	3.25	+0.04
Sao Paulo	3.20	3.10	-0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Mirassol and Sao Paulo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.15Mirassol

0.81Sao Paulo

Total expected goals: 1.96
Attack rating (Mirassol / Sao Paulo): 0.90 / 0.84
Defence rating (Mirassol / Sao Paulo): 0.91 / 0.85

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mirassol vs Sao Paulo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.3% 10.1% 4.6% 1.2% 0.3% 1 14.9% 14.4% 5.3% 1.4% 0.3% 2 9.3% 7.6% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 3 3.6% 2.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 1.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Mirassol goals. Columns: Sao Paulo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mirassol vs Sao Paulo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%

Over 1.5 60%

Over 2.5 31%

Over 3.5 14%

Both teams to score: 39%
No goals (0–0): 15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mirassol vs Sao Paulo

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Mirassol	41%	2.44
	Draw	30%	3.33
	Sao Paulo	29%	3.45
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	31%	3.19
	Under 2.5	69%	1.46
Both teams to score	Yes	39%	2.54
	No	61%	1.65
Double chance	1X (Mirassol or draw)	71%	1.41
	12 (either side)	70%	1.43
	X2 (draw or Sao Paulo)	59%	1.69
Handicap -1	Mirassol win by 2+	19%	5.34
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Mirassol and Sao Paulo recent form

Mirassol 3W 2D 1L

Sao Paulo 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Mirassol at home

Record (W-D-L): 7-5-4
Win rate: 44%
Goals for / match: 1.44
Goals against / match: 1.31
Clean sheets: 3 of 16

They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sao Paulo away

Record (W-D-L): 2-3-10
Win rate: 13%
Goals for / match: 0.73
Goals against / match: 1.47
Clean sheets: 1 of 15

They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Mirassol at home only, Sao Paulo away only.