Ceara vs Goias preview
Ceara faces Goias with a 44% chance of winning compared to Goias at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 13% probability. Ceara's expected goals are 1.29, while Goias has 0.90. Ceara's recent form shows 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Goias has 4 wins in their last 6.
However, Ceara has not beaten Goias in their last encounter, which could affect their confidence. Both teams to score stands at 44%, indicating a possibility for both sides to find the net. The low percentage for Over 2.5 goals at 37% suggests a tight match, but unexpected performances could change the outcome.
Ceara vs Goias: model vs market
| Source | Ceara | Draw | Goias |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 31% | 24% |
| Market | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Published | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.29 vs 0.89.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Ceara vs Goias odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ceara, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara | 2.05 | 2.06 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.21 | 3.22 | +0.01 |
| Goias | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ceara and Goias expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.19
- Attack rating (Ceara / Goias)
- 1.11 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Ceara / Goias)
- 1.06 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ceara vs Goias score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ceara goals. Columns: Goias goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ceara vs Goias goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ceara vs Goias
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ceara | 45% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Goias | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.26 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ceara or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Goias) | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ceara win by 2+ | 21% | 4.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ceara and Goias recent form
Ceara
3W 2D 1L
Goias
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ceara at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-5
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Goias away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-7
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.35
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ceara at home only, Goias away only.
Ceara vs Goias head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Ceara 0 · draws 0 · Goias 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Goias | 2-0 | Ceara | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
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- São Bernardo vs Vila Nova 2026-10-24
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- CRB vs Londrina 2026-10-24
- America Mineiro v Cuiaba — match page 2026-10-26
- Juventude v Nautico Recife — match page 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Ceara, previous: Ceara v Juventude analysis
- Goias, previous: Goias vs Nautico Recife prediction