Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island preview
In the upcoming match between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island, the 1X2 probabilities show Beijing Guoan at 67%, while Qingdao Youth Island stands at 13%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 13% chance. Beijing Guoan has been in decent form, recording 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, while Qingdao Youth Island has 1 win and 4 draws in the same period.
The model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 46%. However, if Qingdao Youth Island improves their attacking play, they could challenge Beijing Guoan's defense, potentially affecting the expected goals of 1.93 for Beijing Guoan and 0.75 for Qingdao Youth Island.
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island: model vs market
| Source | Beijing Guoan | Draw | Qingdao Youth Island |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| Market | 66% | 19% | 14% |
| Published | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| Edge | -2% | +4% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.43, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Beijing Guoan, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing Guoan | 1.35 | 1.40 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 5.00 | 4.85 | -0.15 |
| Qingdao Youth Island | 7.09 | 6.47 | -0.62 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.69
- Attack rating (Beijing Guoan / Qingdao Youth Island)
- 1.26 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Beijing Guoan / Qingdao Youth Island)
- 0.68 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Beijing Guoan goals. Columns: Qingdao Youth Island goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beijing Guoan | 66% | 1.52 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.97 | |
| Qingdao Youth Island | 14% | 7.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.17 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Beijing Guoan or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Qingdao Youth Island) | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Handicap -1 | Beijing Guoan win by 2+ | 40% | 2.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island recent form
Beijing Guoan
3W 3D 0L
Qingdao Youth Island
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Beijing Guoan at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-3
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 2.08
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Qingdao Youth Island away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-6-4
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 1.08
- Goals against / match
- 1.77
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Beijing Guoan at home only, Qingdao Youth Island away only.
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Beijing Guoan 4 · draws 3 · Qingdao Youth Island 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | Qingdao Youth Island | 1-1 | Beijing Guoan | China Super League |
| 2025-08-16 | Qingdao Youth Island | 1-3 | Beijing Guoan | China Super League |
| 2025-07-22 | Qingdao Youth Island | 2-2 | Beijing Guoan | FA Cup |
| 2025-06-17 | Beijing Guoan | 1-0 | Qingdao Youth Island | China Super League |
| 2024-08-11 | Qingdao Youth Island | 2-2 | Beijing Guoan | Super League |
| 2024-04-21 | Beijing Guoan | 4-1 | Qingdao Youth Island | Super League |
| 2023-07-26 | Qingdao Youth Island | 1-4 | Beijing Guoan | FA Cup |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Henan Jianye v Tianjin Teda — match page 2026-10-16
- Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban 2026-10-17
- Yunnan Yukun v Chongqing Tongliang Long — match page 2026-10-17
- Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua 2026-10-18
- SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chengdu Better City — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Beijing Guoan, previous: Qingdao Jonoon v Beijing Guoan analysis
- Beijing Guoan, next: Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan: odds and pick
- Qingdao Youth Island, previous: Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing: odds and pick
- Qingdao Youth Island, next: Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun prediction