Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu: model vs market
| Source | Dalian Zhixing | Draw | Sichuan Jiuniu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 23% | 16% |
| Market | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Published | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Dalian Zhixing below the model: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dalian Zhixing, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dalian Zhixing | 1.69 | 1.62 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 3.99 | 4.03 | +0.04 |
| Sichuan Jiuniu | 4.37 | 4.57 | +0.21 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.94
- Attack rating (Dalian Zhixing / Sichuan Jiuniu)
- 1.07 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Dalian Zhixing / Sichuan Jiuniu)
- 0.77 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dalian Zhixing goals. Columns: Sichuan Jiuniu goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dalian Zhixing | 58% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.35 | |
| Sichuan Jiuniu | 19% | 5.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dalian Zhixing or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Sichuan Jiuniu) | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dalian Zhixing win by 2+ | 37% | 2.68 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu recent form
Dalian Zhixing
3W 2D 1L
Sichuan Jiuniu
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dalian Zhixing at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-1-3
- Win rate
- 69%
- Goals for / match
- 1.77
- Goals against / match
- 1.23
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sichuan Jiuniu away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-9
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 0.85
- Goals against / match
- 2.15
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Dalian Zhixing at home only, Sichuan Jiuniu away only.
Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Dalian Zhixing 1 · draws 2 · Sichuan Jiuniu 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 1-1 | Dalian Zhixing | China Super League |
| 2025-09-14 | Dalian Zhixing | 2-1 | Sichuan Jiuniu | China Super League |
| 2025-04-26 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 1-1 | Dalian Zhixing | China Super League |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Henan Jianye v Tianjin Teda — match page 2026-10-16
- Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban 2026-10-17
- Yunnan Yukun v Chongqing Tongliang Long — match page 2026-10-17
- Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua 2026-10-18
- Beijing Guoan v Qingdao Youth Island — match page 2026-10-18
- SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chengdu Better City — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Dalian Zhixing, previous: Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing: odds and pick
- Dalian Zhixing, next: Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing prediction
- Sichuan Jiuniu, previous: Sichuan Jiuniu v Henan Jianye analysis
- Sichuan Jiuniu, next: Sichuan Jiuniu v Shanghai Shenhua analysis