Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown: model vs market
| Source | Shandong Luneng | Draw | Hangzhou Greentown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 22% | 34% |
| Market | 54% | 21% | 24% |
| Published | 52% | 21% | 27% |
| Edge | -10% | 0% | +9% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Shandong Luneng, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Luneng | 1.77 | 1.70 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 4.29 | 4.33 | +0.04 |
| Hangzhou Greentown | 3.63 | 3.80 | +0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.06
- Attack rating (Shandong Luneng / Hangzhou Greentown)
- 1.03 / 1.37
- Defence rating (Shandong Luneng / Hangzhou Greentown)
- 1.00 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Shandong Luneng goals. Columns: Hangzhou Greentown goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 76%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shandong Luneng | 52% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.66 | |
| Hangzhou Greentown | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76% | 1.32 |
| No | 24% | 4.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Shandong Luneng or draw) | 73% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Hangzhou Greentown) | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shandong Luneng win by 2+ | 26% | 3.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown recent form
Shandong Luneng
3W 2D 1L
Hangzhou Greentown
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Shandong Luneng at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-2
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 2.23
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Hangzhou Greentown away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-7
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.92
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Shandong Luneng at home only, Hangzhou Greentown away only.
Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Shandong Luneng 5 · draws 2 · Hangzhou Greentown 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Hangzhou Greentown | 4-1 | Shandong Luneng | China Super League |
| 2025-10-18 | Hangzhou Greentown | 2-2 | Shandong Luneng | China Super League |
| 2025-05-10 | Shandong Luneng | 4-2 | Hangzhou Greentown | China Super League |
| 2024-10-27 | Hangzhou Greentown | 3-3 | Shandong Luneng | Super League |
| 2024-05-25 | Shandong Luneng | 3-0 | Hangzhou Greentown | Super League |
| 2023-07-22 | Hangzhou Greentown | 2-1 | Shandong Luneng | Super League |
| 2023-04-25 | Shandong Luneng | 2-1 | Hangzhou Greentown | Super League |
| 2023-01-15 | Hangzhou Greentown | 1-2 | Shandong Luneng | FA Cup |
| 2022-06-25 | Hangzhou Greentown | 2-0 | Shandong Luneng | Super League |
| 2022-06-03 | Shandong Luneng | 1-0 | Hangzhou Greentown | Super League |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Henan Jianye v Tianjin Teda — match page 2026-10-16
- Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban 2026-10-17
- Yunnan Yukun v Chongqing Tongliang Long — match page 2026-10-17
- Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua 2026-10-18
- Beijing Guoan v Qingdao Youth Island — match page 2026-10-18
- SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chengdu Better City — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Shandong Luneng, previous: Chongqing Tongliang Long – Shandong Luneng, 2026-10-11
- Shandong Luneng, next: Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng: odds and pick
- Hangzhou Greentown, previous: Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG: odds and pick
- Hangzhou Greentown, next: Shenyang Urban – Hangzhou Greentown, 2026-10-24