Updated

China Super League · Matchday 28

Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban

· Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Qingdao· Referee Kim Hee-gon, South Korea

Full time0 – 4

Alin prediction was Shenyang Urban to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Qingdao JonoonDrawShenyang Urban

Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceQingdao JonoonDrawShenyang Urban
Model28%25%47%
Market11%17%72%
Published15%19%66%
Edge+17%+8%-25%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.38.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Shenyang Urban, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 2.03Now 1.29 -0.73
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Qingdao Jonoon3.248.52+5.28
Draw3.695.45+1.76
Shenyang Urban2.031.29-0.73

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Qingdao Jonoon and Shenyang Urban expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.38Qingdao Jonoon
1.82Shenyang Urban
Total expected goals
3.20
Attack rating (Qingdao Jonoon / Shenyang Urban)
0.65 / 0.89
Defence rating (Qingdao Jonoon / Shenyang Urban)
1.49 / 1.19

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.1% 6.4% 6.7% 4.1% 2.8% 1 4.6% 11.2% 9.3% 5.7% 3.9% 2 3.9% 7.1% 6.4% 3.9% 2.7% 3 1.8% 3.3% 3.0% 1.8% 1.2% 4+ 0.8% 1.5% 1.4% 0.8% 0.6%

Rows: Qingdao Jonoon goals. Columns: Shenyang Urban goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 62%
Over 3.5 40%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Qingdao Jonoon15%6.56
Draw19%5.25
Shenyang Urban66%1.52
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562%1.61
Under 2.538%2.64
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.57
No36%2.76
Double chance1X (Qingdao Jonoon or draw)34%2.92
12 (either side)81%1.24
X2 (draw or Shenyang Urban)85%1.18
Handicap -1Shenyang Urban win by 2+26%3.79
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Qingdao Jonoon and Shenyang Urban recent form

Qingdao Jonoon 0W 0D 6L
Shenyang Urban 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Qingdao Jonoon at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-2-6
Win rate
38%
Goals for / match
1.38
Goals against / match
1.69
Clean sheets
2 of 13
  • They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Shenyang Urban away

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-9
Win rate
8%
Goals for / match
0.85
Goals against / match
1.92
Clean sheets
1 of 13
  • They have won 7 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Qingdao Jonoon at home only, Shenyang Urban away only.

Expected lineups

Qingdao Jonoon lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 28 Pengfei Mu
  2. 29 Suda Li
  3. 23 Long Song
  4. 4 Yangyang Jin
  5. 37 Zixian Wei
  6. 6 Malcom Edjouma
  7. 30 Shiwei Che
  8. 21 Liu Guobao
  9. 20 Ruicong Gong
  10. 34 Yonghao Jin
  11. 10 Carlos Strandberg

Bench: Jun Liu, Xinyu Liu, Zheng'ao Sun, Hailong Li, Qiao Wang, Ngan Cheuk Pan, Zhaolei Kuang, Mewlan Jappar, Chuanhui Zheng, Yi Xinyang, Jingyao Cui

Shenyang Urban lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 29 Yan Zhang
  2. 3 Ximing Pan
  3. 26 Yuan Mincheng
  4. 34 Zhang Hongfu
  5. 11 Binbin Chen
  6. 36 De'ao Tian
  7. 18 Tixiang Li
  8. 5 Dilmurat Mawlanyaz
  9. 47 Jeffinho
  10. 9 Guy Mbenza
  11. 10 Takahiro Kunimoto

Bench: Ange Kouamé, Dinghao Yan, Felipe, Wang Tian'ai, Yuda Tian, Liu Guobo, Jiarun Gao, Dong Xu, Pang Shenghan, Yinong Tian, Li Haoran

Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Qingdao Jonoon 2 · draws 1 · Shenyang Urban 1.

Qingdao JonoonDrawsShenyang Urban
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-20Shenyang Urban2-1Qingdao JonoonChina Super League
2025-05-21Shenyang Urban0-0Qingdao JonoonFA Cup
2022-12-03Qingdao Jonoon2-0Shenyang UrbanLeague One
2022-11-09Shenyang Urban0-3Qingdao JonoonLeague One

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

Before and after this match