Updated

China Super League · Matchday 28

Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long

· Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Yuxi· Referee Jianxin Du, China

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Yunnan Yukun to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Yunnan YukunDrawChongqing Tongliang Long

Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceYunnan YukunDrawChongqing Tongliang Long
Model54%23%24%
Market59%22%19%
Published58%22%20%
Edge-6%+1%+5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.38.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Yunnan Yukun, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.71Now 1.58 -0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Yunnan Yukun1.711.58-0.13
Draw4.064.25+0.19
Chongqing Tongliang Long4.205.00+0.80

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.12Yunnan Yukun
1.38Chongqing Tongliang Long
Total expected goals
3.49
Attack rating (Yunnan Yukun / Chongqing Tongliang Long)
1.29 / 0.62
Defence rating (Yunnan Yukun / Chongqing Tongliang Long)
1.61 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.9% 3.3% 2.9% 1.3% 0.6% 1 5.6% 9.7% 6.1% 2.8% 1.3% 2 6.8% 9.4% 6.4% 3.0% 1.4% 3 4.8% 6.6% 4.6% 2.1% 1.0% 4+ 4.2% 5.7% 3.9% 1.8% 0.8%

Rows: Yunnan Yukun goals. Columns: Chongqing Tongliang Long goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 68%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Yunnan Yukun58%1.73
Draw22%4.52
Chongqing Tongliang Long20%5.01
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568%1.47
Under 2.532%3.11
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.50
No33%3.00
Double chance1X (Yunnan Yukun or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Chongqing Tongliang Long)42%2.38
Handicap -1Yunnan Yukun win by 2+33%3.04
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long recent form

Yunnan Yukun 3W 1D 2L
Chongqing Tongliang Long 0W 3D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Yunnan Yukun at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-2-3
Win rate
62%
Goals for / match
2.38
Goals against / match
1.46
Clean sheets
4 of 13
  • They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Chongqing Tongliang Long away

Record (W-D-L)
3-5-5
Win rate
23%
Goals for / match
0.77
Goals against / match
1.15
Clean sheets
4 of 13
  • They have won 7 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Yunnan Yukun at home only, Chongqing Tongliang Long away only.

Expected lineups

Yunnan Yukun lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 23 Zhifeng Wang
  2. 21 Zihao Yang
  3. 2 Ruibao Hu
  4. 33 Andrei Burcă
  5. 3 Wang-Kit Tsui
  6. 34 Caio Vinícius
  7. 8 Xin Xu
  8. 10 Alexandru Ioniță
  9. 11 Oscar Taty Maritu
  10. 9 Cléber
  11. 39 Bunyamin Abdusalam

Bench: Yaxiong Bao, Ke Shi, Yuhao Zhao, Chugui Ye, Zhang Xiangshuo, Sun Xuelong, Liuyu Duan, Jianxian Yu, Chenliang Zhang, Zilong Han, John Hou Sæter, Ernanduo Fei

Chongqing Tongliang Long lineup · 5-4-1

  1. 1 Haoyang Yao
  2. 26 Xiaoqiang He
  3. 33 Lucão
  4. 16 Zhixiong Zhang
  5. 4 Ruijie Yue
  6. 37 Wei Suowei
  7. 7 Yuwang Xiang
  8. 18 Weipeng Liang
  9. 10 Ibrahim Amadou
  10. 9 Alexandru Cîmpanu
  11. 11 Nany Dimata

Bench: Zhang Yingkai, Pengxiang Jin, Chen Chunxin, Yu-Hei Ng, Du Yuezheng, Jiale Liu, Mingshi Liu, Yeerzhati Yeerjieti, Yongqiang Wu, Wu Zitong, Qilong Ruan

Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Yunnan Yukun 1 · draws 4 · Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.

Yunnan YukunDrawsChongqing Tongliang Long
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-02Yunnan Yukun1-0Chongqing Tongliang LongFA Cup
2026-05-20Chongqing Tongliang Long0-0Yunnan YukunChina Super League
2024-09-15Chongqing Tongliang Long3-2Yunnan YukunLeague One
2024-04-27Yunnan Yukun1-1Chongqing Tongliang LongLeague One
2023-07-02Yunnan Yukun0-0Chongqing Tongliang LongLeague Two
2023-05-06Chongqing Tongliang Long1-1Yunnan YukunLeague Two

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

Before and after this match