Jaguares vs Llaneros preview
In the fixture between Jaguares and Llaneros, the 1X2 probabilities show Jaguares at 42%, Llaneros at 32%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with a 9% chance. There is a 58% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance for both teams to score.
Jaguares' recent form includes 1 draw and 4 losses, while Llaneros has 2 wins and 4 losses in their last 6 matches. The expected goals are 1.61 for Jaguares and 1.39 for Llaneros. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. A different outcome could arise from unexpected performances by either team.
Jaguares vs Llaneros: model vs market
| Source | Jaguares | Draw | Llaneros |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Market | 36% | 29% | 36% |
| Published | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.29.
- The market prices Jaguares below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.69, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Jaguares vs Llaneros odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Jaguares, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguares | 2.61 | 2.61 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
| Llaneros | 2.59 | 2.59 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Jaguares and Llaneros expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.00
- Attack rating (Jaguares / Llaneros)
- 1.05 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Jaguares / Llaneros)
- 1.55 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Jaguares vs Llaneros score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Jaguares goals. Columns: Llaneros goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Jaguares vs Llaneros goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Jaguares vs Llaneros
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jaguares | 38% | 2.61 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Llaneros | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.65 |
| No | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Jaguares or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Llaneros) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Jaguares win by 2+ | 25% | 3.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Jaguares and Llaneros recent form
Jaguares
1W 0D 5L
Llaneros
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Jaguares at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-6
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 1.41
- Goals against / match
- 1.41
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 7 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Llaneros away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-8
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 0.82
- Goals against / match
- 1.24
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Jaguares at home only, Llaneros away only.
Jaguares vs Llaneros head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Jaguares 0 · draws 0 · Llaneros 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | Llaneros | 2-0 | Jaguares | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Chico v Bucaramanga — match page 2026-10-23
- Junior vs Águilas Doradas 2026-10-24
- America de Cali vs Cucuta 2026-10-24
- Once Caldas v Deportivo Pereira — match page 2026-10-25
- Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Atletico Nacional v Independiente Medellin — match page 2026-10-25
- Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Jaguares, previous: Santa Fe v Jaguares analysis
- Jaguares, next: Deportivo Pereira v Jaguares analysis
- Llaneros, previous: Llaneros vs Deportivo Cali prediction