Updated

3. Liga · Matchday 11

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg

· Audi Sportpark, Ingolstadt

Alin prediction MSV Duisburg to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC Ingolstadt 04DrawMSV Duisburg
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.53.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — MSV Duisburg is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
FC Ingolstadt 043.15 Draw3.70 MSV Duisburg2.17

Price as of

Expected return at 2.17: -4.3% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg preview

In the upcoming match between FC Ingolstadt 04 and MSV Duisburg, the 1X2 probabilities show MSV Duisburg at 47%, while FC Ingolstadt 04 is at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% probability. Both teams to score is at 69%, which indicates a strong chance for goals from both sides.

FC Ingolstadt 04 has an expected goals figure of 1.56, while MSV Duisburg stands at 2.00. Recent form favors Duisburg, who have won 4 of their last 6 matches, compared to Ingolstadt's 3 wins in the same period. However, Ingolstadt's home advantage could influence the outcome, making the match unpredictable.

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC Ingolstadt 04DrawMSV Duisburg
Model31%24%45%
Market30%26%44%
Published30%26%44%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.53.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.17, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg odds movement

Median bookmaker price on MSV Duisburg, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-22.

Opened 2.06Now 2.06 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Ingolstadt 042.963.00+0.04
Draw3.443.48+0.04
MSV Duisburg2.062.06+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Ingolstadt 04 and MSV Duisburg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.53FC Ingolstadt 04
1.86MSV Duisburg
Total expected goals
3.39
Attack rating (FC Ingolstadt 04 / MSV Duisburg)
0.99 / 1.33
Defence rating (FC Ingolstadt 04 / MSV Duisburg)
0.94 / 0.88

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.3% 5.3% 5.8% 3.6% 2.6% 1 4.2% 10.5% 8.9% 5.5% 3.9% 2 3.9% 7.3% 6.8% 4.2% 3.0% 3 2.0% 3.7% 3.5% 2.2% 1.5% 4+ 1.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.2% 0.8%

Rows: FC Ingolstadt 04 goals. Columns: MSV Duisburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 66%
Over 3.5 44%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Ingolstadt 0430%3.30
Draw26%3.91
MSV Duisburg44%2.27
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566%1.52
Under 2.534%2.93
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.49
No33%3.04
Double chance1X (FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw)56%1.79
12 (either side)74%1.34
X2 (draw or MSV Duisburg)70%1.44
Handicap -1MSV Duisburg win by 2+25%3.98
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites
# Betting site Welcome offer Why it is here Visit
1 Mozzartbet 50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.
  • M-PESA Paybill 290059
  • Daily Jackpot
  • Live betting
 Get offer
2 Betwinner First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.
  • 1,000+ events every day
  • Live betting around the clock
  • 30+ markets on live events
 Get offer
3 22Bet 100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.
  • M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits
  • Live in-play betting
  • Android and iOS app
 Get offer
4 Melbet 200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.
  • 1,000+ events every day
  • 30+ markets on live events
  • 24/7 customer support
 Get offer

18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.

FC Ingolstadt 04 and MSV Duisburg recent form

FC Ingolstadt 04 3W 0D 3L
MSV Duisburg 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-3
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
2.20
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.

MSV Duisburg away

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-1
Win rate
80%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
1.60
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.4 at home.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Ingolstadt 04 at home only, MSV Duisburg away only.

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: FC Ingolstadt 04 7 · draws 2 · MSV Duisburg 1.

FC Ingolstadt 04DrawsMSV Duisburg
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-04FC Ingolstadt 040-0MSV Duisburg3. Liga
2025-09-27MSV Duisburg2-1FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
2024-04-20FC Ingolstadt 042-0MSV Duisburg3. Liga
2023-11-11MSV Duisburg1-2FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
2023-05-12FC Ingolstadt 042-0MSV Duisburg3. Liga
2022-11-12MSV Duisburg0-1FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
2021-05-15MSV Duisburg1-5FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
2021-01-10FC Ingolstadt 042-1MSV Duisburg3. Liga
2020-01-25MSV Duisburg1-1FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
2019-07-27FC Ingolstadt 043-2MSV Duisburg3. Liga

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot MSV Duisburg to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on MSV Duisburg
Our pick: MSV Duisburg to win 18+ Bet Now