Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf preview
In the match between Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf, the 1X2 probabilities show Hansa Rostock at 44%, while Fortuna Düsseldorf sits at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 9% chance. Hansa Rostock's expected goals stand at 1.69, compared to Fortuna Düsseldorf's 1.48.
Both teams to score has a 64% probability, and there is a 61% chance of Over 2.5 goals. Recent form indicates Hansa Rostock has struggled with two losses in their last three matches, while Fortuna Düsseldorf has two wins in their last three. This could affect the outcome, as form can change quickly in football.
Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf: model vs market
| Source | Hansa Rostock | Draw | Fortuna Düsseldorf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 26% | 33% |
| Market | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Published | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.04, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hansa Rostock, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hansa Rostock | 2.04 | 1.95 | -0.09 |
| Draw | 3.49 | 3.50 | +0.01 |
| Fortuna Düsseldorf | 3.05 | 3.25 | +0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.17
- Attack rating (Hansa Rostock / Fortuna Düsseldorf)
- 0.97 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Hansa Rostock / Fortuna Düsseldorf)
- 1.21 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hansa Rostock goals. Columns: Fortuna Düsseldorf goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hansa Rostock | 45% | 2.21 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Fortuna Düsseldorf | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hansa Rostock or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf) | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hansa Rostock win by 2+ | 22% | 4.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf recent form
Hansa Rostock
2W 1D 3L
Fortuna Düsseldorf
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hansa Rostock at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fortuna Düsseldorf away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hansa Rostock at home only, Fortuna Düsseldorf away only.
Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Hansa Rostock 2 · draws 0 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-25 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 2-0 | Hansa Rostock | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2023-09-16 | Hansa Rostock | 1-3 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2023-03-19 | Hansa Rostock | 2-5 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2022-09-10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 3-1 | Hansa Rostock | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2022-04-08 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 3-0 | Hansa Rostock | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2021-10-31 | Hansa Rostock | 2-1 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2016-08-20 | Hansa Rostock | 0-3 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | DFB Pokal |
| 2012-04-05 | Hansa Rostock | 2-1 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2011-10-21 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 2-0 | Hansa Rostock | 2. Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Rot-Weiß Essen v SSV Jahn Regensburg — match page 2026-10-23
- FC Ingolstadt 04 v MSV Duisburg — match page 2026-10-24
- SV Meppen vs Würzburger Kickers 2026-10-24
- SV Wehen v SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — match page 2026-10-24
- FC Viktoria Köln vs Verl 2026-10-24
- Stuttgart II v Alemannia Aachen — match page 2026-10-24
- Havelse vs FC Saarbrücken 2026-10-25
- Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Köln — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Hansa Rostock, previous: Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock: odds and pick
- Fortuna Düsseldorf, previous: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Saarbrücken: odds and pick