FC Viktoria Köln vs Verl preview
FC Viktoria Köln faces Verl with a 60% probability of winning compared to Verl's 19%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with expected goals of 2.36 for FC Viktoria Köln and 1.30 for Verl. The model suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams to score at 67%.
However, recent form shows FC Viktoria Köln has drawn once and lost once in their last six matches, while Verl has drawn three times and won twice. Additionally, in their last two head-to-head encounters, Verl has won both, which could influence the outcome. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating some uncertainty.
FC Viktoria Köln vs Verl: model vs market
| Source | FC Viktoria Köln | Draw | Verl |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| Market | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| Published | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Viktoria Köln vs Verl odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Viktoria Köln, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Viktoria Köln | 1.55 | 1.57 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 4.25 | 4.30 | +0.05 |
| Verl | 4.29 | 4.27 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Viktoria Köln and Verl expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.59
- Attack rating (FC Viktoria Köln / Verl)
- 1.33 / 0.95
- Defence rating (FC Viktoria Köln / Verl)
- 0.85 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Viktoria Köln vs Verl score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Viktoria Köln goals. Columns: Verl goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Viktoria Köln vs Verl goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Viktoria Köln vs Verl
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 59% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.79 | |
| Verl | 20% | 4.94 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.55 |
| No | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Viktoria Köln or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Verl) | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Viktoria Köln win by 2+ | 41% | 2.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Viktoria Köln and Verl recent form
FC Viktoria Köln
4W 2D 0L
Verl
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Viktoria Köln at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.4 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Verl away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Viktoria Köln at home only, Verl away only.
FC Viktoria Köln vs Verl head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: FC Viktoria Köln 3 · draws 3 · Verl 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Verl | 2-0 | FC Viktoria Köln | 3. Liga |
| 2025-11-22 | FC Viktoria Köln | 1-5 | Verl | 3. Liga |
| 2025-02-22 | Verl | 1-1 | FC Viktoria Köln | 3. Liga |
| 2025-01-07 | FC Viktoria Köln | 1-3 | Verl | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-09-22 | FC Viktoria Köln | 2-1 | Verl | 3. Liga |
| 2023-12-20 | Verl | 1-1 | FC Viktoria Köln | 3. Liga |
| 2023-08-05 | FC Viktoria Köln | 3-1 | Verl | 3. Liga |
| 2023-04-01 | FC Viktoria Köln | 2-1 | Verl | 3. Liga |
| 2022-10-07 | Verl | 2-2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 3. Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Rot-Weiß Essen v SSV Jahn Regensburg — match page 2026-10-23
- FC Ingolstadt 04 v MSV Duisburg — match page 2026-10-24
- SV Meppen vs Würzburger Kickers 2026-10-24
- SV Wehen v SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — match page 2026-10-24
- Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Stuttgart II v Alemannia Aachen — match page 2026-10-24
- Havelse vs FC Saarbrücken 2026-10-25
- Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Köln — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- FC Viktoria Köln, previous: MSV Duisburg v FC Viktoria Köln analysis
- Verl, previous: Hoffenheim II vs Verl prediction