Updated

3. Liga · Matchday 13

Würzburger Kickers vs Hoffenheim II

· Flyeralarm Arena, Wuerzburg· Referee Franziska Wildfeuer

Alin prediction Hoffenheim II to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Würzburger KickersDrawHoffenheim II
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Hoffenheim II is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Würzburger Kickers2.92 Draw3.85 Hoffenheim II2.20

Price as of

Expected return at 2.20: -7.7% per unit staked

Würzburger Kickers vs Hoffenheim II preview

In the match between Würzburger Kickers and Hoffenheim II, the 1X2 probabilities show Hoffenheim II at 43%, compared to Würzburger Kickers at 33%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, which occurs with an 8% probability. Both teams to score stands at 66%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 64%, indicating a strong chance for a high-scoring game.

However, the recent form reveals some inconsistencies. Würzburger Kickers have recorded W-L-W-D-L-L, while Hoffenheim II shows L-L-W-L-L-W. This could impact the match outcome, as both teams have struggled lately. The expected goals for each team are equal at 1.65, suggesting a balanced contest.

Würzburger Kickers vs Hoffenheim II: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWürzburger KickersDrawHoffenheim II
Model37%25%38%
Market32%25%43%
Published33%25%42%
Edge+1%0%-1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Würzburger Kickers vs Hoffenheim II odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Hoffenheim II, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 2.05Now 2.08 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Würzburger Kickers2.902.83-0.07
Draw3.753.66-0.09
Hoffenheim II2.052.08+0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Würzburger Kickers and Hoffenheim II expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.65Würzburger Kickers
1.65Hoffenheim II
Total expected goals
3.30
Attack rating (Würzburger Kickers / Hoffenheim II)
0.86 / 0.96
Defence rating (Würzburger Kickers / Hoffenheim II)
1.16 / 1.09

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Würzburger Kickers vs Hoffenheim II score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.7% 5.1% 5.0% 2.8% 1.7% 1 5.1% 11.1% 8.3% 4.6% 2.7% 2 5.0% 8.3% 6.8% 3.8% 2.2% 3 2.8% 4.5% 3.7% 2.1% 1.2% 4+ 1.6% 2.7% 2.2% 1.2% 0.7%

Rows: Würzburger Kickers goals. Columns: Hoffenheim II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Würzburger Kickers vs Hoffenheim II goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 64%
Over 3.5 42%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Würzburger Kickers vs Hoffenheim II

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Würzburger Kickers33%3.00
Draw25%4.04
Hoffenheim II42%2.38
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564%1.56
Under 2.536%2.78
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.51
No34%2.96
Double chance1X (Würzburger Kickers or draw)58%1.72
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Hoffenheim II)67%1.50
Handicap -1Hoffenheim II win by 2+19%5.15
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

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Würzburger Kickers and Hoffenheim II recent form

Würzburger Kickers 2W 1D 3L
Hoffenheim II 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Würzburger Kickers at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-2
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
3 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Hoffenheim II away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-4
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Würzburger Kickers at home only, Hoffenheim II away only.

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Hoffenheim II to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on Hoffenheim II