Updated

Italy Serie B · Matchday 7

Ascoli vs Empoli

· Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno· Referee Edoardo Manedo Mazzoni

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Ascoli to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AscoliDrawEmpoli

Ascoli vs Empoli: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAscoliDrawEmpoli
Model58%26%16%
Market49%27%24%
Published51%27%22%
Edge+8%-1%-7%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 0.81.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Ascoli below the model: +8.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ascoli vs Empoli odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Ascoli, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-10.

Opened 1.83Now 1.88 +0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Ascoli1.831.88+0.06
Draw3.563.46-0.10
Empoli4.053.90-0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ascoli and Empoli expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.71Ascoli
0.81Empoli
Total expected goals
2.52
Attack rating (Ascoli / Empoli)
0.99 / 0.87
Defence rating (Ascoli / Empoli)
0.85 / 1.17

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ascoli vs Empoli score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.1% 5.4% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 1 12.6% 12.3% 4.5% 1.2% 0.3% 2 11.7% 9.5% 3.9% 1.0% 0.3% 3 6.7% 5.4% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 4.2% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Ascoli goals. Columns: Empoli goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ascoli vs Empoli goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 46%
Over 3.5 25%
Both teams to score
47%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ascoli vs Empoli

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ascoli51%1.95
Draw27%3.76
Empoli22%4.55
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546%2.17
Under 2.554%1.86
Both teams to scoreYes47%2.14
No53%1.87
Double chance1X (Ascoli or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or Empoli)49%2.06
Handicap -1Ascoli win by 2+33%3.03
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ascoli and Empoli recent form

Ascoli 3W 2D 1L
Empoli 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ascoli at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.

Empoli away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Ascoli at home only, Empoli away only.

Expected lineups

Ascoli lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 S. Vitale
  2. 33 N. Rizzo
  3. 30 M. Curado
  4. 19 A. Guiébré
  5. 7 A. Silipo
  6. 13 G. Acampora
  7. 4 S. Damiani
  8. 8 G. Corradini
  9. 14 A. Oliveri
  10. 15 S. D'Uffizi

Bench: M. Nicoletti, L. Venuti, A. Chakir, S. Perciun, L. Lo Scalzo, G. De Pieri, M. Ricci, F. Gattoni, G. Gori, G. Crespi, T. Milanese, D. Bolsius

Empoli lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 12 J. Seghetti
  2. 33 C. Cauz
  3. 91 N. Corrado
  4. 25 M. Curto
  5. 98 K. Zedadka
  6. 21 Gerard Yepes
  7. 8 L. Magnino
  8. 15 J. Ceesay
  9. 10 E. Saporiti
  10. 39 E. Biondini
  11. 77 B. Popov

Bench: S. Perisan, D. Degli Innocenti, S. Shpendi, E. Filippis, F. Meznar, F. Bandinelli, G. Indragoli, M. Egan, D. Bembnista, L. Deli, L. Belardinelli

Ascoli vs Empoli head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Ascoli 2 · draws 1 · Empoli 3.

AscoliDrawsEmpoli
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2021-05-01Ascoli2-0EmpoliSerie B
2020-12-30Empoli1-1AscoliSerie B
2020-07-13Ascoli1-0EmpoliSerie B
2019-12-07Empoli2-1AscoliSerie B
2018-02-10Ascoli1-2EmpoliSerie B
2017-09-16Empoli3-0AscoliSerie B

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match