Why this pick: Pisa vs Cremonese
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Pisa 10, Cremonese 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Pisa vs Cremonese: model vs market
| Source | Pisa | Draw | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 30% | 34% |
| Market | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Published | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Edge | -8% | +1% | +8% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Pisa vs Cremonese odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Pisa, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pisa | 2.20 | 2.07 | -0.13 |
| Draw | 3.24 | 3.19 | -0.05 |
| Cremonese | 3.30 | 3.60 | +0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Pisa and Cremonese expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.47
- Attack rating (Pisa / Cremonese)
- 1.00 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Pisa / Cremonese)
- 1.27 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Pisa vs Cremonese score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Pisa goals. Columns: Cremonese goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Pisa vs Cremonese goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Pisa vs Cremonese
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pisa | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Cremonese | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.94 |
| No | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Pisa or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Cremonese) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Pisa win by 2+ | 17% | 6.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Pisa and Cremonese recent form
Pisa
3W 1D 2L
Cremonese
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Pisa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cremonese away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Pisa at home only, Cremonese away only.
Expected lineups
Pisa lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 98 A. Confente
- 3 S. Angori
- 13 A. Primasso
- 33 A. Calabresi
- 7 M. Léris
- 55 G. Leone
- 29 O. Correia
- 72 S. Zanon
- 10 M. Tramoni
- 32 S. Moreo
- 8 F. Pittarello
Bench: S. Scuffet, R. Bozhinov, A. Caracciolo, S. Canestrelli, I. Ferrah, F. Loyola, E. Rao, İ. Vural, T. Marras, F. Coppola, G. Piccinini, A. Petagna
Cremonese lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 A. Fulignati
- 33 A. Grassi
- 5 S. Luperto
- 6 F. Baschirotto
- 4 T. Barbieri
- 27 J. Vandeputte
- 2 M. Thorsby
- 71 S. Elia
- 14 T. Berti
- 10 Adin Ličina
- 19 M. Nasti
Bench: Simone Lottici Tessadri, M. De Luca, M. Festa, Fellipe Jack, M. Bianchetti, A. Lickūnas, M. Collocolo, F. Agazzi, D. Lordkipanidze, A. Vogliacco
Pisa vs Cremonese head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Pisa 4 · draws 3 · Cremonese 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Cremonese | 3-0 | Pisa | Serie A |
| 2025-11-07 | Pisa | 1-0 | Cremonese | Serie A |
| 2025-05-13 | Pisa | 2-1 | Cremonese | Serie B |
| 2024-11-03 | Cremonese | 1-3 | Pisa | Serie B |
| 2024-05-01 | Cremonese | 2-1 | Pisa | Serie B |
| 2023-12-02 | Pisa | 0-0 | Cremonese | Serie B |
| 2022-03-13 | Pisa | 3-0 | Cremonese | Serie B |
| 2021-10-28 | Cremonese | 1-1 | Pisa | Serie B |
| 2021-07-24 | Pisa | 1-1 | Cremonese | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2021-02-06 | Cremonese | 2-1 | Pisa | Serie B |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Verona vs Catanzaro — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus 2026-10-17
- Ascoli v Empoli — match page 2026-10-17
- Padova vs Virtus Entella — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Carrarese vs Modena 2026-10-17
- Mantova v Palermo — match page 2026-10-17
- Juve Stabia v Sudtirol — match page 2026-10-18
- Cesena vs Avellino — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Pisa, previous: Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa: odds and pick
- Cremonese, previous: Arezzo vs Cremonese prediction
- Cremonese, next: Cremonese – Juve Stabia, 2026-10-24