Cesena vs Avellino preview
In the Serie B match between Cesena and Avellino, the 1X2 probabilities show Cesena at 38%, Avellino at 32%, with a draw at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Cesena, which has an 8% chance according to our model. The expected goals indicate Cesena at 1.21 and Avellino at 1.39, suggesting a close contest.
Both teams to score stands at 54%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 48%. Cesena's recent form shows L-D-D-D-W-D, while Avellino has W-L-D-W-W-L. The head-to-head record is balanced, with each team winning once in their last two meetings. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.
Cesena vs Avellino: model vs market
| Source | Cesena | Draw | Avellino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| Market | 41% | 30% | 30% |
| Published | 38% | 29% | 32% |
| Edge | -9% | -1% | +10% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.41, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cesena vs Avellino odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cesena, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena | 2.30 | 2.29 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.12 | 3.14 | +0.02 |
| Avellino | 3.15 | 3.15 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cesena and Avellino expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.60
- Attack rating (Cesena / Avellino)
- 0.81 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Cesena / Avellino)
- 1.17 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cesena vs Avellino score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cesena goals. Columns: Avellino goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cesena vs Avellino goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cesena vs Avellino
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cesena | 38% | 2.61 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.39 | |
| Avellino | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cesena or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Avellino) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cesena win by 2+ | 14% | 7.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cesena and Avellino recent form
Cesena
1W 4D 1L
Avellino
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cesena at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Avellino away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cesena at home only, Avellino away only.
Cesena vs Avellino head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Cesena 3 · draws 2 · Avellino 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Avellino | 3-1 | Cesena | Italy Serie B |
| 2025-11-09 | Cesena | 3-0 | Avellino | Italy Serie B |
| 2018-02-10 | Avellino | 1-1 | Cesena | Serie B |
| 2017-09-15 | Cesena | 3-1 | Avellino | Serie B |
| 2017-04-22 | Avellino | 1-1 | Cesena | Serie B |
| 2016-11-26 | Cesena | 3-0 | Avellino | Serie B |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus 2026-10-17
- Ascoli v Empoli — match page 2026-10-17
- Padova vs Virtus Entella — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Carrarese vs Modena 2026-10-17
- Mantova v Palermo — match page 2026-10-17
- Pisa vs Cremonese 2026-10-17
- Juve Stabia v Sudtirol — match page 2026-10-18
- Sampdoria v Arezzo — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Cesena, previous: Benevento vs Cesena: odds and pick
- Cesena, next: Modena v Cesena analysis
- Avellino, previous: Avellino v Sampdoria analysis
- Avellino, next: Avellino vs Padova prediction