Updated

Italy Serie B · Matchday 7

Mantova vs Palermo

· Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova· Referee Luca Zufferli

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Palermo to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MantovaDrawPalermo

Mantova vs Palermo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMantovaDrawPalermo
Model40%22%38%
Market29%28%43%
Published31%26%42%
Edge+11%-6%-5%
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Mantova vs Palermo odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Palermo, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 2.20Now 2.15 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Mantova3.253.25-0.00
Draw3.333.35+0.02
Palermo2.202.15-0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Mantova and Palermo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.00Mantova
1.97Palermo
Total expected goals
3.97
Attack rating (Mantova / Palermo)
1.39 / 1.58
Defence rating (Mantova / Palermo)
1.13 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mantova vs Palermo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.6% 3.0% 3.7% 2.4% 1.9% 1 3.0% 8.2% 7.3% 4.8% 3.7% 2 3.8% 7.5% 7.3% 4.8% 3.7% 3 2.5% 5.0% 4.9% 3.2% 2.5% 4+ 2.0% 3.9% 3.9% 2.5% 2.0%

Rows: Mantova goals. Columns: Palermo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mantova vs Palermo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 76%
Over 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
75%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mantova vs Palermo

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Mantova31%3.18
Draw26%3.78
Palermo42%2.38
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576%1.32
Under 2.524%4.12
Both teams to scoreYes75%1.33
No25%4.02
Double chance1X (Mantova or draw)58%1.73
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Palermo)69%1.46
Handicap -1Palermo win by 2+21%4.73
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Mantova and Palermo recent form

Mantova 3W 2D 1L
Palermo 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Mantova at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.

Palermo away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.67
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Mantova at home only, Palermo away only.

Expected lineups

Mantova lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 22 F. Bardi
  2. 27 A. Castellini
  3. 29 S. Cella
  4. 5 B. Tomašević
  5. 50 F. Benaissa-Yahia
  6. 80 R. Kouda
  7. 21 S. Trimboli
  8. 8 R. Ilie
  9. 30 D. Bragantini
  10. 19 F. Ruocco

Bench: L. Gemello, J. Mboyo, E. Gliozzi, D. Wieser, I. Cajazzo, M. Gasparini, N. Radaelli, S. Keita, L. Ignacchiti, E. Košpo, F. Vesentini

Palermo lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 M. Perin
  2. 3 T. Augello
  3. 32 P. Ceccaroni
  4. 13 M. Bani
  5. 84 T. Cassandro
  6. 10 F. Ranocchia
  7. 8 J. Segre
  8. 17 D. Johnsen
  9. 5 A. Palumbo
  10. 9 D. Vavassori
  11. 20 J. Pohjanpalo

Bench: C. Gomes, E. Gyasi, M. Nespola, M. Fortin, Hernani, N. Estévez, P. Peda, A. Bozzolan, L. Mazzitelli, G. Magnani, A. Gabrielloni

Mantova vs Palermo head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Mantova 0 · draws 3 · Palermo 2.

MantovaDrawsPalermo
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-03Palermo5-2MantovaCoppa Italia
2026-03-04Palermo2-1MantovaItaly Serie B
2026-01-11Mantova1-1PalermoItaly Serie B
2025-02-16Palermo2-2MantovaSerie B
2024-10-30Mantova0-0PalermoSerie B

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match