Updated

Italy Serie B · Matchday 7

Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus

· Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento· Referee Simone Galipo

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Benevento to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BeneventoDrawVicenza Virtus

Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBeneventoDrawVicenza Virtus
Model68%19%12%
Market47%26%27%
Published52%25%23%
Edge+21%-7%-14%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 0.93.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Benevento below the model: +21.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Benevento, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 2.01Now 2.00 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Benevento2.012.00-0.01
Draw3.633.53-0.10
Vicenza Virtus3.383.49+0.11

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Benevento and Vicenza Virtus expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.36Benevento
0.93Vicenza Virtus
Total expected goals
3.29
Attack rating (Benevento / Vicenza Virtus)
1.18 / 0.87
Defence rating (Benevento / Vicenza Virtus)
0.97 / 1.35

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.6% 2.7% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 1 8.0% 9.0% 3.8% 1.2% 0.3% 2 10.4% 9.7% 4.5% 1.4% 0.4% 3 8.2% 7.6% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 4+ 8.4% 7.8% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3%

Rows: Benevento goals. Columns: Vicenza Virtus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 64%
Over 3.5 42%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Benevento52%1.92
Draw25%4.05
Vicenza Virtus23%4.32
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564%1.57
Under 2.536%2.76
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.80
No44%2.25
Double chance1X (Benevento or draw)77%1.30
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Vicenza Virtus)48%2.09
Handicap -1Benevento win by 2+46%2.16
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Benevento and Vicenza Virtus recent form

Benevento 3W 1D 2L
Vicenza Virtus 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Benevento at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Vicenza Virtus away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Benevento at home only, Vicenza Virtus away only.

Expected lineups

Benevento lineup · 4-1-3-2

  1. 26 G. Vannucchi
  2. 20 P. Beruatto
  3. 23 P. Saio
  4. 14 S. Scognamillo
  5. 77 E. Pierozzi
  6. 6 A. Siatounis
  7. 28 C. Kouan
  8. 8 M. Maita
  9. 11 D. Lamesta
  10. 29 D. Okereke
  11. 9 F. Salvemini

Bench: A. Prisco, L. Caldirola, L. Cherubini, C. Dalle Mura, Mattia Mannini, P. Simonetti, M. Esposito, G. Mignani, A. Talia, S. Verdi, M. Tumminello

Vicenza Virtus lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 16 R. Gagno
  2. 23 N. Brighenti
  3. 5 R. Marchizza
  4. 66 A. Papetti
  5. 32 F. Costa
  6. 8 A. Bellemo
  7. 26 G. Pellizzari
  8. 29 L. Zonta
  9. 21 T. Corazza
  10. 33 S. Merkaj
  11. 11 G. Moncini

Bench: M. Carraro, M. Leverbe, N. Rauti, C. Morra, M. Valoti, Filippo Alessio, T. Sandon, L. Caferri, M. Vescovi, R. Talarico, E. Tantalocchi, A. Pietrelli

Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Benevento 3 · draws 2 · Vicenza Virtus 0.

BeneventoDrawsVicenza Virtus
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-16Vicenza Virtus1-4BeneventoSerie C - Supercoppa Lega Finals
2022-04-10Benevento1-0Vicenza VirtusSerie B
2021-11-30Vicenza Virtus2-3BeneventoSerie B
2017-04-21Benevento0-0Vicenza VirtusSerie B
2016-11-26Vicenza Virtus0-0BeneventoSerie B

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match