Updated

Italy Serie B · Matchday 7

Padova vs Virtus Entella

· Stadio Comunale Euganeo, Padua· Referee Dario Madonia

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Padova to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PadovaDrawVirtus Entella

Padova vs Virtus Entella: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePadovaDrawVirtus Entella
Model32%32%36%
Market38%32%31%
Published36%32%32%
Edge-6%0%+6%
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Padova vs Virtus Entella odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Padova, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 2.42Now 2.45 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Padova2.422.45+0.03
Draw3.102.93-0.17
Virtus Entella2.933.04+0.11

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Padova and Virtus Entella expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.03Padova
1.12Virtus Entella
Total expected goals
2.16
Attack rating (Padova / Virtus Entella)
0.76 / 1.00
Defence rating (Padova / Virtus Entella)
1.02 / 0.93

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Padova vs Virtus Entella score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.9% 11.6% 7.3% 2.7% 1.0% 1 10.6% 14.8% 7.5% 2.8% 1.0% 2 6.2% 6.9% 3.9% 1.5% 0.5% 3 2.1% 2.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Padova goals. Columns: Virtus Entella goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Padova vs Virtus Entella goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 65%
Over 2.5 37%
Over 3.5 17%
Both teams to score
45%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Padova vs Virtus Entella

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Padova36%2.75
Draw32%3.15
Virtus Entella32%3.13
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.537%2.74
Under 2.563%1.58
Both teams to scoreYes45%2.23
No55%1.81
Double chance1X (Padova or draw)68%1.47
12 (either side)68%1.47
X2 (draw or Virtus Entella)64%1.57
Handicap -1Padova win by 2+13%7.90
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Padova and Virtus Entella recent form

Padova 2W 1D 3L
Virtus Entella 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Padova at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Virtus Entella away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Padova at home only, Virtus Entella away only.

Expected lineups

Padova lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 22 A. Sorrentino
  2. 58 C. Pastina
  3. 5 M. Lovato
  4. 27 Alessandro Dellavalle
  5. 34 M. Cocchi
  6. 6 G. Giunti
  7. 21 E. Zuelli
  8. 14 M. Pompetti
  9. 24 L. Carissoni
  10. 90 G. Artistico
  11. 15 K. Lasagna

Bench: L. Mouquet, K. Varas, P. Fusi, L. Moro, A. Seghetti, A. Capelli, E. Silletti, M. Bortolussi, F. Di Mariano, N. Galazzi, F. Sgarbi, D. Marcolini

Virtus Entella lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 22 F. Del Frate
  2. 27 M. Alborghetti
  3. 6 A. Tiritiello
  4. 23 L. Parodi
  5. 18 T. Annoni
  6. 5 N. Squizzato
  7. 24 A. Franzoni
  8. 94 F. Mezzoni
  9. 17 M. Tirelli
  10. 10 L. Cuppone

Bench: N. Previtali, L. Vignali, Giacomo Corona, Bernat Guiu, E. Torrielli, R. Turicchia, M. Motolese, Lucas Felippe, L. Benedetti, S. Colombi

Padova vs Virtus Entella head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Padova 2 · draws 0 · Virtus Entella 2.

PadovaDrawsVirtus Entella
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-25Virtus Entella1-0PadovaItaly Serie B
2025-09-21Padova2-1Virtus EntellaItaly Serie B
2025-05-17Padova0-1Virtus EntellaSerie C - Supercoppa Lega Finals
2021-11-03Padova2-1Virtus EntellaCoppa Italia Serie C

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match