Updated

Italy Serie B · Matchday 7

Carrarese vs Modena

· Stadio dei Marmi, Carrara· Referee Federico La Penna

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Modena to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CarrareseDrawModena

Carrarese vs Modena: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCarrareseDrawModena
Model34%32%34%
Market22%26%52%
Published25%28%47%
Edge+12%+6%-18%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Carrarese vs Modena odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Modena, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 2.09Now 1.79 -0.29
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Carrarese3.464.24+0.78
Draw3.253.56+0.31
Modena2.091.79-0.29

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Carrarese and Modena expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.09Carrarese
1.09Modena
Total expected goals
2.17
Attack rating (Carrarese / Modena)
0.73 / 1.13
Defence rating (Carrarese / Modena)
0.88 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Carrarese vs Modena score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.7% 11.0% 6.7% 2.4% 0.8% 1 11.0% 14.8% 7.3% 2.7% 0.9% 2 6.7% 7.3% 4.0% 1.4% 0.5% 3 2.4% 2.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Carrarese goals. Columns: Modena goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Carrarese vs Modena goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 65%
Over 2.5 37%
Over 3.5 18%
Both teams to score
45%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Carrarese vs Modena

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Carrarese25%4.01
Draw28%3.62
Modena47%2.11
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.537%2.70
Under 2.563%1.59
Both teams to scoreYes45%2.21
No55%1.83
Double chance1X (Carrarese or draw)53%1.90
12 (either side)72%1.38
X2 (draw or Modena)75%1.33
Handicap -1Modena win by 2+14%7.08
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Carrarese and Modena recent form

Carrarese 1W 1D 4L
Modena 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Carrarese at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.

Modena away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Carrarese at home only, Modena away only.

Expected lineups

Carrarese lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 S. Pizzignacco
  2. 33 F. Reale
  3. 6 F. Oliana
  4. 13 F. Ruggeri
  5. 73 J. Rouhi
  6. 23 M. Braunöder
  7. 18 Nicolás Schiavi
  8. 77 G. Parlanti
  9. 7 N. Belloni
  10. 10 T. Rubino
  11. 9 F. Abiuso

Bench: T. Macchioni, Y. Khafi, M. Cissé, G. Garofani, L. Topalović, J. Martini, M. Finotto, L. Romani, P. Pinelli, N. Cudrig, Tommaso Guercio, G. Marconi

Modena lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 L. Chichizola
  2. 20 B. Nieling
  3. 6 S. Nador
  4. 77 D. Tonoli
  5. 27 Paulo Azzi
  6. 8 S. Santoro
  7. 16 G. Brugman
  8. 42 A. Bianco
  9. 7 F. Zampano
  10. 70 G. Ambrosino
  11. 10 G. Caso

Bench: D. Montevago, A. Belotti, Martino Odero, K. Bozhanaj, L. Consiglio, F. Folino, A. Laidani, A. Imputato, L. Bacchin, W. Acquah, Diego Ronco, G. Olzer

Carrarese vs Modena head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Carrarese 1 · draws 1 · Modena 4.

CarrareseDrawsModena
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-14Modena2-0CarrareseItaly Serie B
2025-10-01Carrarese0-0ModenaItaly Serie B
2025-05-04Carrarese2-1ModenaSerie B
2024-11-09Modena2-0CarrareseSerie B
2022-03-12Carrarese2-3ModenaSerie C - Girone B
2021-10-31Modena2-0CarrareseSerie C - Girone B

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match