Sampdoria vs Arezzo preview
In the upcoming match between Sampdoria and Arezzo, Sampdoria holds a 49% probability to win compared to Arezzo's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% chance of occurring. Both teams to score has a 52% likelihood, which indicates a competitive match.
Sampdoria's recent form shows a mixed bag with L-W-L-L-L-D, while Arezzo has a slightly better record of D-L-W-L-L-W. This could affect the expected goals, with Sampdoria at 1.36 and Arezzo at 1.16. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty about the outcome.
Sampdoria vs Arezzo: model vs market
| Source | Sampdoria | Draw | Arezzo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Market | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Published | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Edge | -10% | +2% | +8% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.86, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sampdoria vs Arezzo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sampdoria, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria | 1.80 | 1.85 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.47 | -0.14 |
| Arezzo | 4.20 | 4.04 | -0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sampdoria and Arezzo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.52
- Attack rating (Sampdoria / Arezzo)
- 0.74 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Sampdoria / Arezzo)
- 1.29 / 1.25
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sampdoria vs Arezzo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sampdoria goals. Columns: Arezzo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sampdoria vs Arezzo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sampdoria vs Arezzo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sampdoria | 48% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Arezzo | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| No | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sampdoria or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Arezzo) | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sampdoria win by 2+ | 19% | 5.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sampdoria and Arezzo recent form
Sampdoria
1W 1D 4L
Arezzo
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sampdoria at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Arezzo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sampdoria at home only, Arezzo away only.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus 2026-10-17
- Ascoli v Empoli — match page 2026-10-17
- Padova vs Virtus Entella — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Carrarese vs Modena 2026-10-17
- Mantova v Palermo — match page 2026-10-17
- Pisa vs Cremonese 2026-10-17
- Juve Stabia v Sudtirol — match page 2026-10-18
- Cesena vs Avellino — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Sampdoria, previous: Avellino v Sampdoria analysis
- Sampdoria, next: Sudtirol vs Sampdoria: odds and pick
- Arezzo, previous: Arezzo vs Cremonese prediction