APS Bomet vs GOR Mahia

APS Bomet vs GOR Mahia: model vs market

• Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.59.
• Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

APS Bomet and GOR Mahia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

Total expected goals

2.02

Attack rating (APS Bomet / GOR Mahia)

1.08 / 1.16

Defence rating (APS Bomet / GOR Mahia)

0.52 / 1.29

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

APS Bomet vs GOR Mahia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

Rows: APS Bomet goals. Columns: GOR Mahia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

APS Bomet vs GOR Mahia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Both teams to score

35%

No goals (0–0)

14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

APS Bomet and GOR Mahia recent form

APS Bomet DDWWWW 4W 2D 0L

GOR Mahia WLLLDW 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.