Shabana vs Nairobi United Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Shabana vs Nairobi United preview

In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between Shabana and Nairobi United, the 1X2 probabilities show Nairobi United at 42%, while Shabana sits at 25%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-1, which occurs with a 15% probability. Shabana's expected goals are 0.83, compared to Nairobi United's 1.17, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors.

Despite the probabilities, there are factors that could affect the outcome. Shabana's recent form includes two wins in their last six matches, while Nairobi United has three draws and two wins in the same period. Additionally, both teams to score has a 40% probability, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 32%, suggesting that goals may be limited in this matchup.

Shabana vs Nairobi United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Shabana	Draw	Nairobi United
Model	25%	33%	43%
Market	—	—	—
Published	25%	33%	43%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.17 vs 0.83.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Shabana and Nairobi United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.83Shabana

1.17Nairobi United

Total expected goals: 2.00
Attack rating (Shabana / Nairobi United): 0.79 / 1.27
Defence rating (Shabana / Nairobi United): 0.94 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Shabana vs Nairobi United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.8% 14.5% 9.3% 3.6% 1.4% 1 9.9% 14.4% 7.7% 3.0% 1.1% 2 4.6% 5.4% 3.2% 1.2% 0.5% 3 1.3% 1.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Shabana goals. Columns: Nairobi United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Shabana vs Nairobi United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%

Over 1.5 61%

Over 2.5 32%

Over 3.5 14%

Both teams to score: 40%
No goals (0–0): 15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Shabana vs Nairobi United

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Shabana	25%	4.06
	Draw	33%	3.05
	Nairobi United	43%	2.35
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	32%	3.09
	Under 2.5	68%	1.48
Both teams to score	Yes	40%	2.49
	No	60%	1.67
Double chance	1X (Shabana or draw)	57%	1.74
	12 (either side)	67%	1.49
	X2 (draw or Nairobi United)	75%	1.33
Handicap -1	Nairobi United win by 2+	19%	5.28
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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