KCB vs Mathare United: model vs market
| Source | KCB | Draw | Mathare United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
KCB and Mathare United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.42
- Attack rating (KCB / Mathare United)
- 1.21 / 0.97
- Defence rating (KCB / Mathare United)
- 1.22 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
KCB vs Mathare United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: KCB goals. Columns: Mathare United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
KCB vs Mathare United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for KCB vs Mathare United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KCB | 37% | 2.72 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Mathare United | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.98 |
| No | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (KCB or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Mathare United) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | KCB win by 2+ | 17% | 6.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
KCB and Mathare United recent form
KCB
2W 2D 2L
Mathare United
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
KCB vs Mathare United head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: KCB 6 · draws 1 · Mathare United 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Mathare United | 1-2 | KCB | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-09-26 | KCB | 0-1 | Mathare United | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-02-26 | KCB | 1-1 | Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| 2024-11-03 | Mathare United | 1-0 | KCB | FKF Premier League |
| 2023-05-27 | Mathare United | 0-1 | KCB | FKF Premier League |
| 2023-02-04 | KCB | 2-1 | Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| 2022-01-04 | Mathare United | 0-1 | KCB | FKF Premier League |
| 2021-06-19 | KCB | 1-0 | Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| 2021-05-19 | Mathare United | 1-2 | KCB | FKF Premier League |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
- APS Bomet v GOR Mahia — match page 2026-10-17
- Homeboyz vs Ulinzi Stars 2026-10-18
- Murang'a SEAL vs Posta Rangers FC 2026-10-18
- Shabana v Nairobi United — match page 2026-10-18
- Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Bandari vs 3K — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Police vs AFC Leopards 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- KCB, previous: Homeboyz v KCB analysis
- KCB, next: KCB v 3K analysis
- Mathare United, previous: Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United prediction
- Mathare United, next: Mathare United – Homeboyz, 2026-10-24