Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite preview
Mara Sugar faces Mombasa Elite with 1X2 probabilities showing Mara Sugar at 34%, a draw at 35%, and Mombasa Elite at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 17%. Both teams to score stands at 38%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 28%.
Mara Sugar's expected goals are 0.94, slightly higher than Mombasa Elite's 0.90. Recent form shows Mara Sugar with a record of D-L-D-L-W-L, while Mombasa Elite has a recent win and a loss. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty about the outcome. A low-scoring match could make the predictions less reliable.
Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite: model vs market
| Source | Mara Sugar | Draw | Mombasa Elite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 35% | 31% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 34% | 35% | 31% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Mara Sugar and Mombasa Elite expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.84
- Attack rating (Mara Sugar / Mombasa Elite)
- 0.93 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Mara Sugar / Mombasa Elite)
- 0.92 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mara Sugar goals. Columns: Mombasa Elite goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mara Sugar | 34% | 2.97 |
| Draw | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Mombasa Elite | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.66 |
| No | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mara Sugar or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| X2 (draw or Mombasa Elite) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mara Sugar win by 2+ | 13% | 7.83 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mara Sugar and Mombasa Elite recent form
Mara Sugar
1W 2D 3L
Mombasa Elite
1W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
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- Shabana v Nairobi United — match page 2026-10-18
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Before and after this match
- Mara Sugar, previous: Nairobi United – Mara Sugar, 2026-10-16
- Mara Sugar, next: Shabana v Mara Sugar analysis
- Mombasa Elite, previous: AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite: odds and pick
- Mombasa Elite, next: Mombasa Elite – Ulinzi Stars, 2026-10-24