Homeboyz vs Ulinzi Stars preview
In the match between Homeboyz and Ulinzi Stars, the 1X2 probabilities show Homeboyz at 34%, Ulinzi Stars at 34%, and a draw at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a probability of 11%. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Homeboyz recording W-D-D-L-L-L and Ulinzi Stars at L-W-W-W-L-D.
The expected goals are close, with Homeboyz at 1.10 and Ulinzi Stars at 1.11, suggesting a tightly contested match. While there is a 46% chance for both teams to score, the 38% probability for Over 2.5 goals indicates that a high-scoring game may not be expected. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.
Homeboyz vs Ulinzi Stars: model vs market
| Source | Homeboyz | Draw | Ulinzi Stars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 32% | 34% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 34% | 32% | 34% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Homeboyz and Ulinzi Stars expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.21
- Attack rating (Homeboyz / Ulinzi Stars)
- 1.06 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Homeboyz / Ulinzi Stars)
- 1.05 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Homeboyz vs Ulinzi Stars score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Homeboyz goals. Columns: Ulinzi Stars goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Homeboyz vs Ulinzi Stars goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Homeboyz vs Ulinzi Stars
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Homeboyz | 34% | 2.94 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Ulinzi Stars | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.17 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Homeboyz or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or Ulinzi Stars) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ulinzi Stars win by 2+ | 14% | 6.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Homeboyz and Ulinzi Stars recent form
Homeboyz
1W 2D 3L
Ulinzi Stars
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Homeboyz vs Ulinzi Stars head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Homeboyz 3 · draws 4 · Ulinzi Stars 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Homeboyz | 0-1 | Ulinzi Stars | Shield Cup |
| 2026-02-26 | Ulinzi Stars | 1-1 | Homeboyz | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-10-25 | Homeboyz | 3-1 | Ulinzi Stars | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-02-09 | Ulinzi Stars | 0-0 | Homeboyz | FKF Premier League |
| 2024-12-14 | Homeboyz | 1-1 | Ulinzi Stars | FKF Premier League |
| 2024-03-10 | Homeboyz | 2-0 | Ulinzi Stars | FKF Premier League |
| 2023-11-26 | Ulinzi Stars | 0-1 | Homeboyz | FKF Premier League |
| 2023-03-08 | Ulinzi Stars | 1-0 | Homeboyz | FKF Premier League |
| 2022-12-11 | Homeboyz | 1-1 | Ulinzi Stars | FKF Premier League |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
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- APS Bomet v GOR Mahia — match page 2026-10-17
- Murang'a SEAL vs Posta Rangers FC 2026-10-18
- Shabana v Nairobi United — match page 2026-10-18
- Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Bandari vs 3K — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Police vs AFC Leopards 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Homeboyz, previous: Homeboyz v KCB analysis
- Homeboyz, next: Mathare United – Homeboyz, 2026-10-24
- Ulinzi Stars, previous: Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth prediction
- Ulinzi Stars, next: Mombasa Elite – Ulinzi Stars, 2026-10-24