Police vs AFC Leopards Prediction & Betting Tips 20/10/2026

Police vs AFC Leopards preview

In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between Police and AFC Leopards, the 1X2 probabilities show Police at 40%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 (15%). Recent form indicates Police has drawn their last 5 matches, while AFC Leopards has won 3 of their last 6.

The expected goals are 1.07 for Police and 0.78 for AFC Leopards, suggesting a tight contest. However, with only 28% for Over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, the match could be less dynamic than anticipated. The confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome.

Police vs AFC Leopards: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Police	Draw	AFC Leopards
Model	41%	34%	25%
Market	—	—	—
Published	41%	34%	25%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Police and AFC Leopards expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.07Police

0.78AFC Leopards

Total expected goals: 1.85
Attack rating (Police / AFC Leopards): 1.02 / 1.11
Defence rating (Police / AFC Leopards): 0.71 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Police vs AFC Leopards score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 17.0% 11.0% 4.8% 1.3% 0.3% 1 15.5% 14.4% 5.1% 1.3% 0.3% 2 9.0% 7.0% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 3 3.2% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Police goals. Columns: AFC Leopards goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Police vs AFC Leopards goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 83%

Over 1.5 57%

Over 2.5 28%

Over 3.5 12%

Both teams to score: 37%
No goals (0–0): 17%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Police vs AFC Leopards

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Police	41%	2.47
	Draw	34%	2.90
	AFC Leopards	25%	3.99
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	28%	3.53
	Under 2.5	72%	1.40
Both teams to score	Yes	37%	2.71
	No	63%	1.59
Double chance	1X (Police or draw)	75%	1.33
	12 (either side)	66%	1.53
	X2 (draw or AFC Leopards)	59%	1.68
Handicap -1	Police win by 2+	17%	5.90
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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