GOR Mahia vs Bandari preview
In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between GOR Mahia and Bandari, the 1X2 probabilities show GOR Mahia at 39%, a draw at 35%, and Bandari at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 15% chance. GOR Mahia has a slight edge in expected goals at 1.04 compared to Bandari's 0.81.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. GOR Mahia has recorded two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Bandari has two draws and two losses. With only 28% for Over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, low-scoring matches are a possibility. This makes the prediction less certain despite GOR Mahia's historical advantage.
GOR Mahia vs Bandari: model vs market
| Source | GOR Mahia | Draw | Bandari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 35% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 39% | 35% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
GOR Mahia and Bandari expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.85
- Attack rating (GOR Mahia / Bandari)
- 1.14 / 0.70
- Defence rating (GOR Mahia / Bandari)
- 1.16 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
GOR Mahia vs Bandari score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: GOR Mahia goals. Columns: Bandari goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
GOR Mahia vs Bandari goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for GOR Mahia vs Bandari
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | GOR Mahia | 39% | 2.56 |
| Draw | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Bandari | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.69 |
| No | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (GOR Mahia or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 65% | 1.53 | |
| X2 (draw or Bandari) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | GOR Mahia win by 2+ | 16% | 6.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
GOR Mahia and Bandari recent form
GOR Mahia
2W 1D 3L
Bandari
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
GOR Mahia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Bandari away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: GOR Mahia at home only, Bandari away only.
GOR Mahia vs Bandari head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: GOR Mahia 5 · draws 2 · Bandari 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | GOR Mahia | 0-0 | Bandari | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-12-12 | Bandari | 1-1 | GOR Mahia | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-04-12 | Bandari | 0-2 | GOR Mahia | Shield Cup |
| 2025-03-15 | GOR Mahia | 2-0 | Bandari | FKF Premier League |
| 2024-11-06 | Bandari | 2-0 | GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| 2024-03-09 | Bandari | 1-0 | GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| 2023-12-22 | GOR Mahia | 1-0 | Bandari | FKF Premier League |
| 2023-04-12 | Bandari | 1-2 | GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| 2022-12-21 | GOR Mahia | 1-0 | Bandari | FKF Premier League |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Posta Rangers FC vs KCB — team news & stats 2026-10-23
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- Ulinzi Stars vs Mara Sugar — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- 3K v Murang'a SEAL — match page 2026-10-25
- Mombasa Elite vs Police — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- AFC Leopards v Shabana — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- GOR Mahia, previous: Posta Rangers FC vs GOR Mahia: odds and pick
- GOR Mahia, next: Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia prediction
- Bandari, previous: Bandari vs Murang'a SEAL prediction
- Bandari, next: Bandari vs Posta Rangers FC: odds and pick