3K vs Murang'a SEAL Prediction & Betting Tips 25/10/2026

3K vs Murang'a SEAL preview

In the upcoming match between 3K and Murang'a SEAL, the 1X2 probabilities show a close contest with 3K at 37% and Murang'a SEAL at 38%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. The expected goals are also tight, with 3K at 1.67 and Murang'a SEAL at 1.68, suggesting both teams could find the net.

The model predicts a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 67%. However, the recent form indicates 3K has drawn their last two matches, while Murang'a SEAL has mixed results with three wins in their last five games. This inconsistency could affect the match outcome and scoring potential.

3K vs Murang'a SEAL: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	3K	Draw	Murang'a SEAL
Model	37%	25%	38%
Market	—	—	—
Published	37%	25%	38%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

3K and Murang'a SEAL expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.673K

1.68Murang'a SEAL

Total expected goals: 3.34
Attack rating (3K / Murang'a SEAL): 1.13 / 1.50
Defence rating (3K / Murang'a SEAL): 1.13 / 1.43

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

3K vs Murang'a SEAL score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.5% 4.9% 5.0% 2.8% 1.7% 1 4.9% 10.9% 8.3% 4.6% 2.8% 2 4.9% 8.2% 6.9% 3.9% 2.4% 3 2.7% 4.6% 3.8% 2.1% 1.3% 4+ 1.6% 2.8% 2.3% 1.3% 0.8%

Rows: 3K goals. Columns: Murang'a SEAL goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

3K vs Murang'a SEAL goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 86%

Over 2.5 65%

Over 3.5 43%

Both teams to score: 67%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for 3K vs Murang'a SEAL

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	3K	37%	2.68
	Draw	25%	4.03
	Murang'a SEAL	38%	2.64
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	65%	1.54
	Under 2.5	35%	2.85
Both teams to score	Yes	67%	1.49
	No	33%	3.02
Double chance	1X (3K or draw)	62%	1.61
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Murang'a SEAL)	63%	1.60
Handicap -1	Murang'a SEAL win by 2+	20%	5.07
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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